Markets are telling you something most people are ignoring.
📉 Recession risk is now being priced as almost non-existent
– VIX-based signal: ~9% probability
– Bond volatility signal: effectively 0%
After years of fear-driven trading… volatility is now silent.
But here’s the uncomfortable part:
When markets stop pricing risk, it doesn’t mean risk is gone.
It means it’s being ignored.
2022–2023: volatility screamed “danger”
2026: volatility is whispering “all clear”
That disconnect is where surprises usually live.
Are markets seeing stability… or just getting comfortable too early?
#markets #Macro #Investing #stocks #volatility $BTW $MYX
$ALLO