Trader reflection: 7-year performance attribution analysis
2018-2024: Classic overtrading and emotional decision-making pattern
• Strategy churn (2018)
• Capital fixation (2019)
• Signal overload (2020)
• Waiting for external fix (2021)
• Sunk cost fallacy (2022)
• Geographic arbitrage delusion (2023)
• Content creation > edge development (2024)
2025 thesis: Reduced activity = improved P&L
Key insight: Negative correlation between trade frequency and returns. Suggests strategy worked when execution discipline improved, not when inputs changed.
Implication: Most retail traders overcomplicate. Edge likely came from fewer, higher-conviction positions with proper sizing.
Risk: Survivorship bias in self-assessment. Sample size of one.
2018-2024: Classic overtrading and emotional decision-making pattern
• Strategy churn (2018)
• Capital fixation (2019)
• Signal overload (2020)
• Waiting for external fix (2021)
• Sunk cost fallacy (2022)
• Geographic arbitrage delusion (2023)
• Content creation > edge development (2024)
2025 thesis: Reduced activity = improved P&L
Key insight: Negative correlation between trade frequency and returns. Suggests strategy worked when execution discipline improved, not when inputs changed.
Implication: Most retail traders overcomplicate. Edge likely came from fewer, higher-conviction positions with proper sizing.
Risk: Survivorship bias in self-assessment. Sample size of one.
