Citadel forecasts a surprise 25-basis-point Fed rate hike on Wednesday. This defies broad market expectations for a hold.

Citadel's macro team believes Chair Warsh will use a hike to reassert Fed independence, not respond to data. The market is pricing in a hold, leaving it vulnerable.

If Citadel is right, risk assets, including Bitcoin, face a headwind.

Would you keep funds on a mid-tier exchange right now?

$BTC