Manufacturing cooled slightly in July—53.8 vs expectations of 54.4. Not alarming, just a soft tick down.

But services? That's where the surprise landed. PMI jumped to 53.6, well above the 51.5 forecast. Composite followed suit, rising to 53.6 from 51.9.

This tells a familiar story: the consumer economy is holding up better than the industrial side. Services drive most of the U.S. economy, and right now, they're carrying more weight than factories.

Still above 50 across the board, so expansion continues. But the gap between manufacturing and services is worth watching—it reflects where real demand is flowing.