Something feels off.
Japan's bond yields haven't been this high in decades. The yen carry trade — basically the ATM that's been funding global risk for years — is starting to crack. Yen's near 40-year lows. That's not nothing.
Trump just slapped 10-12.5% tariffs on 60 countries. That's basically everything coming into the US.
Strait of Hormuz? Tankers got hit this week. Traffic's way down year-over-year. Red Sea's still a mess — ships are routing around Africa now.
And Ukraine just took out Russia's biggest refinery plus the last untouched one. Russian refining capacity is seriously damaged.
Oil's getting squeezed from every angle. Cheap money's drying up. Import costs are climbing.
All of this is happening right now. Not some forecast. Not a risk scenario. Actual events.
And yet... markets are acting like it's business as usual.
Maybe I'm wrong. But this feels like one of those moments where everything lines up and people only notice after it's too late.
Japan's bond yields haven't been this high in decades. The yen carry trade — basically the ATM that's been funding global risk for years — is starting to crack. Yen's near 40-year lows. That's not nothing.
Trump just slapped 10-12.5% tariffs on 60 countries. That's basically everything coming into the US.
Strait of Hormuz? Tankers got hit this week. Traffic's way down year-over-year. Red Sea's still a mess — ships are routing around Africa now.
And Ukraine just took out Russia's biggest refinery plus the last untouched one. Russian refining capacity is seriously damaged.
Oil's getting squeezed from every angle. Cheap money's drying up. Import costs are climbing.
All of this is happening right now. Not some forecast. Not a risk scenario. Actual events.
And yet... markets are acting like it's business as usual.
Maybe I'm wrong. But this feels like one of those moments where everything lines up and people only notice after it's too late.