$BTC Technical analysis: 📈📉📊

Bitcoin is consolidating near $88,744, caught in a high-stakes range between $86K support and $94K resistance, the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement that doubles as the bull-bear line. Since October’s $126K cycle top, structure has degraded: the 200-day SMA was lost, weekly momentum printed a rare dead-cross, and each rebound has failed at lower highs, signaling a distribution phase, not a fresh uptrend.

On-chain data flash contrarian buy signals: Hash-ribbons triggered miner capitulation, the Puell Multiple sank to 0.67 (deep-value zone), and whales added 47K BTC while coins fled exchanges, setting up a latent supply shock . Yet sentiment is stuck in “Extreme Fear” for two straight weeks; ETF flows flipped to $188M outflows as retail rushes for the exit.

Macro cross-winds add volatility: a BoJ rate-hike threatens yen carry unwinds, and U.S. liquidity is tightening into year-end. A daily close above $94K would open $100K and re-ignite FOMO; failure to hold $86K risks a swift drop toward $82–80K before buyers re-emerge.

Bottom line: Bitcoin is building a compressed spring—directional breakout within days will decide whether 2026’s $250K projection stays alive or a deeper $74K cyclical retest arrives first.

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