Christmas is over, and many expected the market to slow down.
But today tells a very different story.
This is the largest Bitcoin options expiry day of the entire year.
The data is straightforward and revealing:
Open call options are 3× larger than put options
Total notional value: $23.5 billion
Maximum pain point: $95,000
🎯 Why $95,000 Matters
If BTC closes near $95K, market makers pay the least.
Most options expire worthless, and volatility gets suppressed.
But here’s the catch 👇
If price moves away from $95K, especially to the upside, a large number of call options flip in-the-money. That forces institutions to rapidly hedge their exposure.
And that’s when things can get interesting.
🔥 How a Rally Can Snowball
Experienced traders know this setup well.
When price rises:
Market makers hedge by buying spot or futures
That buying amplifies upward momentum
Bullish positioning can trigger a short-squeeze-style rally
With calls outweighing puts by three to one, even a modest upward push could cause accelerated buying pressure in a very short time.
❄️ The Other Side of the Coin
If BTC stays pinned below $95K:
Most call options expire worthless
Bullish sentiment cools rapidly
Momentum fades just as fast as it appeared
This is why expiry days often feel tense and deceptive.
⚠️ A Word of Caution
Today’s setup is different from the past — bullish bets are clearly dominant.
That increases the odds of sharp moves.
But don’t forget:
Wall Street thrives on volatility.
Institutions have sophisticated arbitrage and hedging strategies designed to profit regardless of direction. Retail traders chasing short-term moves face real risks if they misjudge timing or size.
🔍 So… Will Something Happen Tonight?
From a structural and data-driven perspective, the probability is not low.
However:
The size of any move
And how long it lasts
will depend on whether spot markets absorb the pressure and how quickly institutions adjust their hedges.
🧠 Final Takeaway
Watching the drama is fine.
Acting requires discipline.
For long-term holders, options expiry volatility is just noise — small ripples in a much bigger cycle.
The real trend always reveals itself after the dust settles.
