Most traders obsess over price levels and miss the one variable that matters most: timing. In every major Bitcoin cycle, the true bottom didn’t form until roughly 360–400 days after the all-time high. By that measure, this cycle hasn’t entered the highest-probability bottoming window yet — which points to July–November 2026 as the critical period to watch.
Price alone is a trap. The levels that feel “safe” are usually where nothing happens. That’s why I buy on conditions not comfort: below $50k regardless of time, and during the July–November 2026 window regardless of price. I’ve already started accumulating in the $60k range, knowing full well lower prices are still possible.
There’s one more overlooked signal: NUPL. Every generational bottom — 2018, COVID, 2022 — happened when NUPL entered the blue zone. We’re not there yet. A $40k–$50k Bitcoin by late 2026 wouldn’t shock me at all — and that’s where I’d get aggressive. I’ve been here since 2013. Big drawdowns aren’t chaos. They’re just part of the cycle.
