Bitcoin's strong July rally may be giving bulls a reason to smile, but the next page on the calendar brings a very different tone. From a statistical perspective, August is Bitcoin’s worst-performing month, and price history suggests that trouble may be on the horizon.
Of all the months, August has the lowest median return, at -8.3%. The average return is not much better at just -0.23%, with repeated sell-offs during this period putting a damper on things.
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The numbers do not lie. In 2024,BTC fell by 8.73% in August. In 2023, it fell by 11.2%. And in 2022? Down another 14%. That is three consecutive years of significant losses, wiping out gains and reversing uptrends.
Historically, the only hope for better Augusts, such as the +14% in 2021 or the +2.54% in 2020, came in the middle of a bull cycle, just like the current state of the market.
BTC is currently trading at around $119,000, ending July with an 11.3% monthly increase. Nevertheless, the chart is already flattening right under the $120,000 resistance zone. Without a new catalyst or volume spike, the outlook is uncertain heading into the end of the month.
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What makes August especially dangerous is that selling usually starts quickly. Historically, early August often brings sharp pullbacks, particularly in years with strong Julys. It is a classic mean-reversion setup.
So while July may close in the green, August has a long track record of changing the mood.Unless Bitcoin breaks this pattern, the next 30 days could see BTC enter its weakest seasonal period — and possibly rewrite the record books for all the wrong reasons.
For now, the bulls have nine days left before the calendar turns against them.
