Key Points:
Bitcoin fell to a 12-day low near $114,270, wiping $80B from total crypto market cap.
Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s best months, positive in 10 of the past 12 years.
Analysts remain split — some expect a $165K surge, others warn of a muted rally amid macro risks.
Bitcoin Slips Despite ‘Uptober’ Hype
The crypto market turned red on Monday, just nine days before October, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $114,270, its lowest level in nearly two weeks. Ether (ETH) also declined more than 4%, slipping below $4,300, while total market capitalization shed $80 billion.
The dip comes despite growing hype over the so-called “Uptober” rally, a term coined after Bitcoin historically posted gains in 10 of the last 12 Octobers, according to CoinGlass. Bitcoin hasn’t logged a losing October since 2018, when it slipped 3.8%. In 2017 and 2021, BTC surged 48% and 40% in October, fueling expectations of a repeat this year.
If history rhymes, Bitcoin could climb toward $165,000 next month, but not all analysts are convinced.
Analysts Split on October Outlook
Some market watchers say liquidity tailwinds may reignite momentum. Bitcoiner Kyle Chassé pointed to a 92% chance of another Fed rate cut in October, calling it “fuel Bitcoin and crypto thrive on.”
Analyst Sykodelic predicted BTC would first retest $112,500 before entering “the explosive final leg” to new highs. Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that once the U.S. Treasury finishes filling its Treasury General Account, crypto will shift into “up only mode.”
Others see more caution. Augustine Fan of SignalPlus warned that low volatility, weaker inflows, and profit-taking could keep rallies capped. Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, added that macro uncertainty makes the classic Uptober rally “less likely” this year — unless the Fed signals more aggressive stimulus.
What Comes Next
With October historically one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, traders are watching whether the seasonal pattern can override bearish macro signals. Much will depend on upcoming Fed speeches and U.S. inflation data, which could dictate whether crypto sees another “green October” or a muted rally in 2025.
