Key Takeaways:
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. says BTC is showing signs of short-term overheating.
Futures are trading at a premium to spot, with the 7-day MA above the 30-day MA.
If trend confirmation signals emerge, Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high within two weeks.
Bitcoin Futures Signal Overheating Ahead of FOMC
Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering a short-term overheating phase but still has a strong chance of breaking to new all-time highs, according to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that BTC futures are trading at a premium to spot, with the futures basis staying positive and the 7-day moving average above the 30-day average. This setup historically indicates bullish momentum.
However, Adler cautioned that recent overheating signals — particularly a rising basis on light trading volume — point to late-stage market behavior ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting.
Base Case: Gradual Uptrend or Sideways
Adler’s base case scenario assigns a 70% probability that Bitcoin will trade in a gradual uptrend or sideways over the next two weeks.
The bullish case depends on the confirmation of three signals in the coming days:
Rising BTC price
Rising futures basis
Rising open interest (OI)
If these align, Adler said it would reflect fresh bullish participation and significantly increase the probability of BTC posting a new all-time high within weeks.
Market Context
Bitcoin is currently trading near $116,000–$117,000 resistance, with investors awaiting the Fed’s rate decision. While futures traders appear cautious, spot demand and ETF inflows have supported BTC above key levels.
If confirmation signals emerge post-FOMC, the setup could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next leg higher.
