Key Takeaways
Bitcoin faces $117K resistance ahead of the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025.
Markets expect a 0.25% cut, though a surprise 0.50% cut remains possible.
Historically accurate models project a bull market top near $140K in coming weeks.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.3B inflows last week, outpacing new BTC supply 9-to-1.
Binance order-book data signals large-volume buying over the weekend.
Bitcoin Braces for Fed Week Volatility
Bitcoin (BTC $114,726) enters a pivotal week as traders eye the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to begin a new rate-cutting cycle.
BTC continues to test the $117K resistance zone, with order-book data showing significant sell liquidity stacked just above. Failure to break through could trigger a pullback toward $113,500–$112,000, analysts warn.
Fed Rate Cut in Focus
Markets have priced in a 100% chance of a 25bps rate cut on Wednesday, with a 4–11% chance of 50bps, according to CME FedWatch.
The move would mark the first cut since 2020 delivered while stocks are near record highs — a rare policy mix. Analysts note that this environment could fuel risk assets like Bitcoin and gold, as the Fed prioritizes labor-market support over inflation control.
“The straight-line higher price action in Bitcoin and gold is pricing-in what’s coming,” wrote trading outlet The Kobeissi Letter.
Bull Market Top Models Signal $140K–$160K
Debate over the cycle peak is intensifying.
Joao Wedson’s Max Intersect SMA model, historically accurate in calling past tops, shows the bull market peak has not yet arrived, suggesting a final push toward $140,000 in the coming weeks.
A MACD golden cross earlier this month implies BTC could reach $160,000 by October, echoing a similar 40% surge seen after April’s signal.
Some traders, however, expect a short-term dip before fresh all-time highs.
Institutional Demand Dominates Supply
Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed 5,900 BTC in a single day last week — the largest inflow since mid-July — totaling $2.3 billion over five sessions.
According to Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch, inflows were nine times the newly mined BTC supply, underscoring a mounting supply squeeze.
Material Indicators’ Keith Alan said simply: “There is too much institutional demand, and that demand is growing.”
Binance Data Signals Large Buyers
Onchain data from CryptoQuant highlights Binance’s Scarcity Index spiking over the weekend — a sign of immediate buying power exceeding available BTC supply.
The last time such a pattern emerged, Bitcoin climbed rapidly to $124,000. Analysts caution, however, that the signal needs to persist for days to confirm a sustainable rally.
The Outlook
With the Fed set to cut rates and institutional buying at record pace, Bitcoin’s resistance at $117K is the near-term hurdle. Breaking it could open the path toward $124K, and potentially $140K–$160K in Q4.
For now, BTC traders are bracing for short-term volatility — but macro and onchain signals keep the longer-term bullish case firmly intact, according to Cointelegraph.