otc

Так, це той самий Wintermute, навколо якого ринок любить будувати легенди. Але тут важливе не ім’я, а те, як реально рухаються гроші і де знаходиться ліквідність.
1) Гроші більше не “розмазуються” — вони збираються в купу
За їхніми даними по OTC:
● частка BTC + ETH повільно знижується:
54% → 51% → 49% (2023–2025)
але це не означає, що гроші пішли в «будь-які шитки».
Навпаки:
частка топ-10 альтів (без BTC і ETH) росте:
31% → 35% → 39%
а “довгий хвіст” із тисяч дрібних токенів стискається:
15% → 14% → 12%
З відси випливає: ринок робить ставку на крупняк.
Формула «зальємо все підряд — раптом щось вистрілить» більше не працює.
2) 2025 добре провчив роздріб
У звіті окремо виділяють 10 жовтня як переломний момент. Після тієї тряски роздріб почав зменшувати ризик і повертатися в BTC та ETH.
Це виглядає дуже просто:
● спочатку тебе виносять на плечах,
● потім ти раптом починаєш цінувати “надійне”.
Психологія, нічого нового.
3) Альти стали спринтом, а не марафоном
Статистика за 2025 рік:
● середня і медіанна тривалість альт-раллі — близько 19–20 днів
у 2024 це було ближче до 60 днів
● open interest по альтах (без BTC/ETH) до кінця 2025 значно нижчий піків — падіння близько 55%
● Сенс простий:
менше пального → швидші фіксації → більше різких сплесків і менше довгих трендів.
4) Натяк на те, що “4-річний цикл” більше не такий прямолінійний
Wintermute дуже обережно підводять до думки, що класична схема «BTC виріс → прибуток залив увесь альтринок» працює дедалі гірше.
Причини очевидні:
● інституційні потоки,
● ETF-логіка,
● загальна концентрація ліквідності.
#OTC

1. 伊朗本土加密货币需求激增
- 里亚尔崩盘导致民众失去对法定货币的信任，比特币、泰达币（USDT）等加密货币成为本土避险工具，伊朗本地加密货币交易规模在2026年初环比上涨47%，P2P交易平台的里亚尔兑USDT交易对成交量激增。
- 受外汇管制影响，伊朗民众通过加密货币完成跨境资金转移，规避本币贬值和外汇限制，部分伊朗商家甚至开始接受加密货币结算商品。
2. 区域加密货币交易生态变化
- 中东地区加密货币交易所针对伊朗用户推出专属服务，如里亚尔与加密货币的场外交易（#OTC ）通道优化，币安等头部平台的中东区伊朗用户注册量在1个月内增长23%。
- 伊朗本土出现基于加密货币的小额支付应用，主要用于本地商超、跨境电商交易，试图绕开本币的支付困境。
3. 全球加密货币市场的短期波动
- 避险需求推动#比特币 、#以太坊 等主流币在中东交易时段的买盘增加，2026年1月伊朗货币危机发酵期间，比特币在迪拜、德黑兰时区的交易量占比提升至全球总量的11%，短时拉动币价上涨3%。
- 稳定币（尤其是#USDTUSDC ）成为伊朗资金避险的核心选择，稳定币的链上转账数据显示，伊朗相关地址的稳定币持仓量在1个月内增加1.2亿美元。
4. 监管层面的连锁反应
- 伊朗央行对#加密货币 的态度从“限制”转向“有限监管”，2026年初拟出台加密货币交易反洗钱细则，同时考虑将加密货币挖矿纳入能源监管框架（伊朗拥有丰富的天然气资源，挖矿产业此前已初具规模）。
- 欧美监管机构警惕伊朗利用加密货币规避制裁，加大对中东地区加密货币交易所的合规审查，部分平台被迫暂停伊朗用户的部分功能。
$ETH
$BNB
$BTC

The XRP community continues to discuss why XRP’s price failed to rally following the launch of the highly anticipated Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC).
While the fund posted one of the strongest ETF debuts of 2025, pulling in $245 million on day one, XRP’s price continued drifting lower.
Now, Fabio Marzella, Founding and Board Director of the XRPL Foundation, has stepped in to explain what’s really happening beneath the surface.
“ETF Trading Happens on the Stock Market, Not Crypto Exchanges”
In a post on X, Marzella noted that many people expected the price to shoot up as soon as XRPC began trading. But the structure of ETF settlement explains why that didn’t happen.
According to him, ETF trades occur on the stock market, not on crypto exchanges, where spot XRP is bought and sold.
Due to the T+1 settlement system, when someone buys an XRP ETF share, the issuer does not receive the cash immediately. The money settles the next business day, and only then can the provider begin purchasing the actual XRP needed to back the fund.
This delay means early inflows don’t immediately translate into spot market demand. Essentially, Marzella stressed that an ETF does not pump the price on day one. The real impact comes later, sometimes quietly at first, then all at once.
Strong ETF Debut, Weak Price Reaction
After XRPC’s debut, the ETF recorded $26 million in trading volume in its first 30 minutes and $58.5 million by market close. Additionally, it logged $245 million in net inflows on the first day.
These numbers made XRPC the top ETF debut of the year, surpassing even the Bitwise Solana ETF. It also placed the XRP fund among the best-performing ETF launches out of more than 900 issued in 2025.
Yet despite this momentum, XRP fell from $2.52 to around $2.28. Since the ETF launch, XRP’s price has dropped to $2.16 before slightly recovering to $2.25 at press time. At this price, the coin is down 8.63% over the past week.
Bearish Market Dampened the Effect
Marzella also highlighted a second factor behind XRP’s decline: the entire crypto market is bearish.
Bitcoin lost the $100,000 support last Friday and has since fallen to $92,900. This bearish Bitcoin performance dragged the rest of the market down with it. In other words, as major altcoins corrected, XRP followed the trend.
Nick from The Web Alert pointed out that inflows worth tens or even hundreds of millions are still too small to overpower market selling pressure—especially considering XRP’s large supply. Any selling by major holders can offset upward pressure.
#OTC Purchases May Hide the Real Buying Activity
Another reason the price impact hasn’t appeared yet is the way ETFs acquire their underlying assets. Even after settlement, issuers rarely buy directly from public exchanges. Large funds like Canary Capital often source assets from over-the-counter liquidity providers, meaning the purchases are not visible on spot price charts.
Marzella ended his explanation with a message of patience. ETF-driven price effects typically lag behind launch-day hype, as seen with Bitcoin’s own ETF debut in January 2024, which initially showed little price reaction before kicking off a major rally weeks later.
#XRPRealityCheck #xrpetfs #XRPPredictions #bearishmomentum
$XRP

The crypto market doesn’t really hurt when you lose money it hurts when you make it and can’t touch it. I’ve seen this happen too many times. One trader made $70,000 in USDT, withdrew it to his card, and hours later his bank froze every single non-cash transaction. The balance was there, but he couldn’t move a single cent. That’s when you realize the real risk isn’t the charts going red, it’s your money getting locked while you watch helplessly.

This happens more often than people admit. Stolen or “tainted” funds pass through the system every day. A scammer sells stolen crypto for USDT, someone else buys it in good faith, and before long, those same funds end up in your wallet. When law enforcement traces it back, your account gets flagged even if you did nothing wrong. The worst part? You can fix it, but it’s exhausting. You’ll spend days sending screenshots, chat records, and payment proofs just to get your money back.

That’s why smart traders take precautions before the trouble starts. Keep a separate card for OTC or peer trades. Always deal with verified sellers don’t chase a 1% discount that could cost you everything. And don’t rush big withdrawals; split them, label them properly, and move slow when needed. These details sound small, but they’re what separate panic from peace.

In crypto, everyone wants to make money fast. But staying liquid and keeping what you earn takes real discipline. The next bull run will create winners again, but only the careful ones will still be holding their profits when it ends.
This post is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice—always DYOR and manage risk.
#CryptoSecurity #USDT #OTC #DEFİ #Web3 $BTC $ETH $XRP