Bitcoin
$BTC Under Structural Pressure as Stablecoin Liquidity Stays Defensive
Bitcoin continues to trade under clear structural pressure as stablecoin liquidity remains largely sidelined. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio
$BTC (SSR) is holding in a prolonged negative regime across the 90-day, 200-day, and 365-day oscillators — signaling a broader liquidity contraction rather than a short-term pullback.
After peaking above the 120K region mid-year, BTC shifted from expansion into compression, printing successive lower highs into late Q4 and early Q1. The decisive breakdown below the zero line on the SSR oscillator marked a macro liquidity transition. This wasn’t just volatility — it was structural.
A compressed SSR indicates that stablecoin supply is relatively elevated compared to Bitcoin’s market capitalization. In bullish expansion phases, the oscillator rises as capital rotates from stablecoins into BTC, fueling upside continuation. The current configuration shows the opposite dynamic: liquidity exists within the system, but it is not being aggressively deployed into spot exposure.
This divergence between available capital and price performance reflects hesitation. Market participants appear defensive, holding stablecoins rather than chasing momentum. While downside volatility has increased, rebounds have consistently lacked follow-
Earlier in the cycle, sustained positive SSR readings aligned with constructive volatility expansion and strong structural support. The synchronized rollover across all major timeframes signaled a macro inflection. Since then, the market has entered a liquidity standoff.
From an on-chain perspective, extended negative SSR regimes often precede major inflection points — but confirmation requires behavioral change. A stabilization in price combined with flattening or upward rotation in the short-term oscillator would suggest initial capital redeployment.
Until that divergence appears, liquidity remains passivefollow-
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