cryptomarket

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​نحن على أعتاب حدث استثنائي لم يسبق للسوق أن شهده بهذا الحجم؛ حيث ستنتهي غداً عقود خيارات (Options) للبتكوين بقيمة تقارب 23 مليار دولار.

​هذه السيولة المليارية الضخمة تضعنا أمام سيناريوهات مفتوحة في ظل ظروف سوق معقدة:

​🔍 تحليل المشهد الحالي:

​تذبذب حاد متوقع: مع إغلاق هذه العقود، عادة ما نشهد تقلبات سعرية "عنيفة" تهدف إلى تصفية المراكز المكشوفة.

​سيولة "نهاية العام": يأتي هذا إغلاق بالتزامن مع عطلات الأسواق العالمية وضخ سيولة ضعيف نسبياً، مما قد يضاعف أثر أي حركة سعرية.

​المستويات المفصلية: الأنظار تتجه نحو اختبار مستويات الـ 94,000$ في حال الإيجابية، أو كسر مستويات الـ 84,000$ في حال غلب البيع لتغطية المراكز.

​نصيحة للمتداولين: في ظل تداخل "إغلاق العقود" مع "خمول سيولة الأعياد"، يُنصح بالحذر الشديد والابتعاد عن الرافعة المالية العالية. السوق حالياً في منطقة "انعدام يقين".

​ما هي توقعاتكم لاتجاه السعر بعد الإغلاق؟ هل سنرى اختراقاً للقمة التاريخية أم تصحيحاً أعمق؟ 👇
​#BTC
#bitcoin
#CryptoMarket
#OptionsExpiry
#CryptoAnalysis

Selling pressure on Bitcoin has surged to its highest level in nearly three years, signaling a decisive shift in short-term market dynamics. Aggressive distribution from taker-side participants is now dominating price action, pushing BTC into a prolonged corrective phase that has lasted several weeks. This trend became especially evident after the sharp sell-off on October 10, which marked a clear turning point in trader sentiment and reinforced a bearish short-term bias.
At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have remained consistently negative, highlighting persistent caution among institutional and large-scale investors. This capital outflow reflects broader weakness across the crypto market, particularly as risk appetite tends to contract toward year-end—a period historically associated with heightened volatility and unpredictable price swings.
Short-Term Expectations: Pullback Before a Bounce?
From a short-term perspective, some market participants anticipate Bitcoin (BTC) could revisit the $82,000–$84,000 zone before attempting a technical rebound toward $95,000. This potential move is closely tied to a major options expiry scheduled for Friday, which could temporarily inject volatility and trigger short-lived price distortions.
However, the combination of sustained ETF outflows and elevated selling pressure suggests that underlying demand remains weak, limiting the strength and durability of any upside reaction. As a result, any rebound may be corrective rather than trend-defining.
What Should Traders Expect From Bitcoin’s Price Action?
In a recent post on X, on-chain analyst Root noted that Bitcoin is currently trading close to its on-chain fair value. This valuation model incorporates several fundamental metrics, including realized capitalization, coin days destroyed, and liquid supply dynamics—factors designed to estimate Bitcoin’s “true” market value beyond speculative price action.
According to Root, Bitcoin has remained overvalued for most of the period since March 2024, with conditions worsening toward the end of the year when BTC entered a zone of severe overvaluation. Consequently, the recent correction toward fair value does not automatically represent a clear buying opportunity, but rather a normalization of excessive market conditions.
Adding to this perspective, analyst Axel Adler Jr points out that short-term trader behavior has entered a rare equilibrium state. Relevant indicators have fallen into the lowest 5% of historical observations, suggesting that buying and selling pressure among short-term holders is nearly balanced. This condition has occurred in only 5.8% of cases over the past three years, highlighting a market that is deeply indecisive and searching for directional clarity.
Key Liquidity Zones and Technical Outlook
From a technical standpoint, liquidation heatmaps identify $83,500 and $94,700 as the nearest liquidity magnets, while the $90,000–$92,700 range stands out as a dense liquidity cluster that could act as a short-term battleground between bulls and bears.
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin’s price action throughout December has lacked a clear trend, with the short-term structure still leaning bearish. This increases the probability of another sweep toward the $84,000 liquidity zone before any meaningful recovery attempt.
Fibonacci retracement levels further suggest that Bitcoin must reclaim $101,700, and more importantly $107,500, to decisively shift market sentiment back toward a bullish regime. Until these levels are broken and held, upside moves are likely to face heavy resistance.
Conclusion
Overall, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, with short-term volatility heavily influenced by options market expirations and liquidity-driven moves rather than strong spot demand. Traders should remain cautious, focus on key liquidity levels, and avoid overcommitting until clearer confirmation emerges.
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#BTC #CryptoMarket