bluechip

#EconomicAnalysis | بعد ارتفاع قوي سجل مستويات قياسية عبر المجلس، يعتقد بوبي مولافي، رئيس التداول الكلي في جولدمان ساكس، أن هناك “علامات على أن الأسبوع الماضي كان القمة، وأن هذا الأسبوع هو بداية الانعكاس.”
ما هي هذه العلامات التحذيرية؟
1. “الجميع على القارب” حالة من الشراء المفرط غير المريح
المستثمرون المؤسسيون: شراء المخاطر (مخاطر إجمالية طويلة) بينما يقومون أيضًا بالتحوط (تحوط طويل)، مما يخفي الواقع أنهم يتراكمون بشكل كبير على مستوى الأسهم الفردية.

◀️ Catching every peak and sub-bottom
◀️ Timing corrections to the exact minute
◀️ Pinpointing a failure level within just $400
◀️ Predicting a correction 10 minutes in advance and it happened

🔹 I work across 4 screens:
1⃣ 1-minute → Price action with session timing
2⃣ 15-minute → Stop-loss setup
3⃣ 1-hour → Market direction
4⃣ 4-hour → Confirming the broader view

Why share this publicly? It’s a show of strength and a message to those who criticized me: focus on your own work, the gap in skill and knowledge is clear 💯.
🚫Going forward: I won’t be giving live, session-by-session updates publicly anymore since it’s too distracting. My focus will shift to the private channel.
But:
✔️ I’ll still provide public market updates and coin analysis.
✔️ Focus on your craft. Results speak louder than words.
🙏 Wishing you all success.

On-chain analysis reveals Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase following the Federal Open Market Committee-driven rally that peaked near $117,000. Long-term holders have realized 3.4 million Bitcoin in profits, while ETF inflows slowed significantly.
The current drawdown from the $124,000 all-time high to $109,700 represents just 12% compared to 28% cycle drawdowns or 60% declines in previous cycles. This aligns with diminishing volatility trends across macro cycles and resembles the steady 2015-2017 advance.
Realized cap, measuring cumulative capital investment, has risen to $1.06 trillion through three distinct waves since November 2022. This cycle absorbed $678 billion in net inflows, nearly 1.8 times larger than the prior cycle's $383 billion.
The profit realization ratio shows that in each wave, profit-taking exceeded 90% of coins moved, marking cyclical peaks. Having stepped away from the third such extreme, probabilities favor a CoolingPhase ahead, according to historical patterns.
Long-term holder distribution reached 122,000 Bitcoin monthly, while ETF net flows collapsed from 2,600 Bitcoin daily to nearly zero around the FOMC meeting. This combination created fragile market conditions setting up weakness.
Spot Volumes spiked during post-FOMC selling as forced liquidations overwhelmed thin order books, accelerating the decline. Futures open interest fell from $44.8 billion to $42.7 billion as leveraged long positions were flushed out.
Options markets repriced aggressively with skew surging and puts in high demand, signaling defensive positioning. One-week implied volatility jumped from 1.5% to 17%, revealing aggressive demand for downside protection.
The market sits in peak gamma conditions where small price movements force aggressive dealer hedging. This structure amplifies sell-offs while capping rallies, skewing near-term volatility risk to the downside.
Unless institutional and holder demand realigns, deeper cooling risks remain high. The macro structure increasingly resembles Market Exhaustion after unprecedented capital rotation and long-term holder distribution.
(COINMARKETCAP)
#BlueChip