tariffs2026

And tomorrow could be the worst day of 2026 yet…

Most people don’t know this, but:

Tariffs stays = DOWN
Tariffs gone = DOWN

THERE IS NO WIN SCENARIO.

If you hold stocks or any assets, you need to pay attention to this.

Before we even talk about tariffs, look at where we are standing.

– The "Buffett Indicator" (Market Cap to GDP) just hit ~224%. That’s an all-time record. It’s higher than the Dot-Com bubble peak (~150%) and higher than the 2021 top.

– The Shiller P/E is hovering near 40. We have only seen this ONCE in 150 years… right before the 2000 crash.

The market is priced for utopia. It can’t handle a 1% miss, let alone a trade war.

Here’s where things get worse…

1. THE "GREENLAND" ESCALATION: 10% tariffs on European allies (France, Germany, UK, etc.) effective Feb 1. This is a direct hit to the bottom line of multinationals trading at 22x earnings.

2. THE CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS: Rumors are circulating that the Supreme Court is about to rule Trump’s IEEPA tariffs are ILLEGAL.

Someone who’s been here for years already knows: THERE IS NO BULLISH OUTCOME.

Let me explain.

SCENARIO A: The Tariffs Stick (Inflation Shock)

– Margins COLLAPSE. Companies cannot pass 10-20% cost hikes to a tapped-out consumer, so they eat it.

– History Lesson: When Bush imposed steel tariffs in 2002, steel-consuming industries lost 200,000 jobs… more than the entire steel industry employed. The market hated it.

– In 2018, tariff threats caused immediate sell-offs (CAC 40 lost 1.7% in a day, Apple dropped 2.6%).

The math is terminal: 2026 earnings estimates are ~15% too high.

SCENARIO B: The Tariffs Are Illegal (Insolvency Shock)

– This is the "Refund Nightmare." If voided, the U.S. government technically owes BILLIONS in refunds to importers.

– The 1930 Ghost: We are rhyming with Smoot-Hawley. In 1930, the market crashed 16% before the bill was even signed, just on anticipation.

– If the court rules against Trump, the administration won't fold. They will trigger Section 232 or executive orders to block refunds.

– Markets hate legal chaos and insolvency risk MORE than they hate taxes.

We are either facing a margin-crushing trade war OR a constitutional crisis over fiscal solvency.
#Write2Earn #trading #Tariffs2026 #stocks #CryptoUpdate