Overall Market
The above chart is the BTC price in the 8H candle chart at a log scale.
In our previous report dated June 19, we highlighted the disconnect between strong capital inflows from ETFs and enterprises adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, and the narrow trading range exhibited by Bitcoin’s price. The muted volatility and lack of clear directional momentum raised our analysts’ concerns regarding Bitcoin’s near-term performance. We recommended two trading strategies under different scenarios: buying at support levels and selling at resistance levels.
Last Friday, following missile launches by Iran, the market experienced a sharp decline amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin moved in tandem with other risk assets and closed lower on Friday. Over the weekend, while traditional markets were closed, the crypto market continued to operate 24/7. Market sentiment was fully reflected in Bitcoin’s price, which briefly dropped below $100,000 on June 22 after US President Trump confirmed that US military forces had destroyed three nuclear facilities in Iran. This military action caused some investor fears of a broader conflict between Iran and the US/Israel, and the risk-off sentiment pushed Bitcoin below its strong support level at $100,000, dipping into the $98,000 range. As we have emphasized previously, the $100,000 level remains a critical support zone, and Bitcoin quickly rebounded above this threshold as a result.
Although Bitcoin snapped below $100,000 again on Monday following Iranian missile strikes on US military bases, market sentiment shifted bullish after Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading near the upper boundary of a bear flag pattern, as shown in the chart above. Our desk has observed over $1.4 billion in capital inflows into Bitcoin over the past three days; however, the price has failed to sustain bullish momentum and break out of this bear flag formation. This sets up a binary scenario for the coming days:
Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin breaks above the downward trendline resistance of the bear flag, triggering follow-through buying and a potential surge toward the $112,000 level.
Bearish Scenario: Market sentiment turns negative, and Bitcoin faces strong resistance around the $109,000 range, leading to a gradual decline back toward the $104,000 level over the weekend.
Looking ahead, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data is scheduled for release this Friday. Following Fed Chair Powell’s testimony earlier this week, the market expects inflation to show limited immediate impact from tariffs, with effects becoming more apparent from June onward. Our desk believes that any Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will be more closely tied to developments in the US labor market rather than inflation metrics. Additionally, the US reciprocal tariffs have been paused by President Trump for 90 days, with the deadline approaching on July 9. We anticipate increased market volatility as this deadline nears.
Our desk remains cautiously neutral on Bitcoin’s near-term price action. While significant capital inflows suggest underlying buying interest, the inability of the price to break key resistance levels signals persistent selling pressure. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility, with potential for either a breakout to the upside or a retracement toward support levels depending on evolving market sentiment and macroeconomic developments.
Bitcoin ETF Tracker
The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.
Since Monday, June 23, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $1.4 billion in inflows, marking 12 consecutive days of net capital inflow despite the heightened geopolitical tensions experienced last Friday and over the weekend. Over the past 12 trading sessions, a total of $3.5 billion has flowed into Bitcoin and related digital asset classes, with the BTC price moving modestly from $105,000 to $106,000.
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East during the weekend, Bitcoin’s price briefly dipped below $100,000 but quickly rebounded to around the $104,000 level. This decline followed missile launches attributed to Iran last Friday, which initially triggered the price drop.
The strong capital inflows coupled with relatively muted price movement have heightened our analysts’ concerns regarding Bitcoin’s near-term performance. The disconnect between significant buying pressure and stagnant price action suggests that sellers currently dominate the market. Should the price continue to trade sideways despite sustained large ETF inflows, our analysts anticipate a surge in volatility, potentially leading to an explosive move in Bitcoin’s price.
Macro at a glance
Last Thursday (June 19, 2025)
Australia reported a surprising decline in employment for May, with a drop of 2,500 jobs, contrary to analysts’ expectations of an increase of 20,600. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% for the month.
The Bank of England announced its interest rate decision, maintaining the policy rate at 4.25%. Governor Andrew Bailey signaled that a potential rate cut could occur as early as August, citing recent data that points to a weakening labor market.
Last Friday (June 20, 2025)
UK retail sales for May fell unexpectedly, registering a 1.3% year-over-year decline instead of the anticipated 1.7% increase. Core retail sales also decreased by 1.3%, missing the forecasted 1.8% growth.
Monday (June 23, 2025)
The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June was revised upward from 51.1 to 52.0, while the Services PMI was also revised higher from 52.9 to 53.1. These upward revisions reflect growing optimism among purchasing managers regarding the US economic outlook following recent tariff uncertainties.
Tuesday (June 24, 2025)
The US Consumer Confidence Index, as reported by the Conference Board, declined sharply from 98.4 in May to 93.0 in June, falling short of the forecasted 99.4.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his semiannual testimony to Congress, reiterating a cautious “wait and see” stance on future interest rate adjustments.
Wednesday (June 25, 2025)
Chair Powell continued his testimony, noting that the impact of tariffs is expected to become more apparent from June onward. He also emphasized that the Federal Reserve still has some room to go with its balance sheet reduction.
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