ETF

加密圈苦等的 “山寨币 ETF 红利”，可能要以一种所有人都没想到的方式落地 —— 据彭博行业研究最新消息，包含狗狗币（DOGE）、Chainlink（LINK）、莱特币（LTC）在内的 10 种主流山寨币 ETF，大概率会在近期获批；而卡达诺（ADA）、瑞波币（XRP）这类曾陷监管争议的币种，也有望在 2025 年末迎来专属 ETF。但就在市场准备喊出 “山寨币牛市启动” 时，彭博专家 James Seyffarth 却泼了盆冷水：“别期待传统的山寨币狂潮，需求端和机构玩法已经变了。”
先看这波即将获批的山寨币 ETF “名单”—— 除了 DOGE、LINK、LTC 这些 “老面孔”，还涵盖了 Stellar（XLM）、比特币现金（BCH）、雪崩协议（AVAX）、柴犬币（SHIB）、波卡（DOT）、Solana（SOL）和 Hedera（HBAR），基本覆盖了市值前 20 的主流山寨币。从品类上看，既有 DOGE、SHIB 这类靠社区热度支撑的模因币，也有 LINK（预言机）、AVAX（智能合约）、DOT（跨链）这类有实际应用场景的功能性代币，看似是给不同需求的投资者都提供了 “入场券”。
但关键问题在于：谁会买这些单一山寨币 ETF？Seyffarth 在报告中直接点出核心矛盾 ——“散户对单一山寨币的热情在消退，机构又看不上”。回顾 2021 年山寨币牛市，靠的是散户抱着 “小币翻 10 倍” 的投机心态疯狂入场，但经过 2022 年的熊市洗牌，大量散户要么被套牢离场，要么转向更稳健的主流币；而机构投资者对单一山寨币的风险容忍度极低，比如 DOGE 没有实际应用支撑、SHIB 的代币经济脆弱，这些都不符合机构 “风险可控、有基本面支撑” 的投资逻辑。
反倒是另一类玩家正在抢占市场 —— 资金管理公司（DAT）。这些公司不做单一山寨币 ETF，而是通过持有以太坊（ETH）、Solana（SOL）等主流资产，搭配质押、流动性挖矿等方式创造 “复合收益”，反而成了机构的新宠。比如某头部 DAT 公司，把 70% 的资金配置在 ETH 和 SOL 上，通过 ETH 质押获取 4.5% 的年化收益，再用 SOL 参与 DeFi 协议挖矿额外赚 3%，最后把 10% 的资金投入优质山寨币衍生品对冲风险。这种 “主流资产打底 + 额外收益增强” 的模式，既满足了机构对安全性的要求，又比单纯买比特币 ETF 的收益更高，近期已经吸引了包括某养老基金在内的 3 家机构注资，规模超 5 亿美元。
更值得关注的是，Seyffarth 预测 “混合型山寨币 ETF 会比单一品种更吃香”。比如把 LINK（预言机）、AVAX（智能合约）、DOT（跨链）这类功能性代币打包，或者将 SOL 生态内的山寨币组合成 ETF，既能分散单一币种的风险，又能聚焦某一赛道的增长潜力。某加密基金经理就透露：“我们正在和券商沟通，想定制一个‘Solana 生态 ETF’，把 SOL、RAY（DeFi）、SBR（模因币）、PYTH（数据预言机）打包，这样既能蹭 SOL ETF 的热度，又能通过多币种平衡风险，机构客户的咨询量已经比单一 SOL ETF 多 3 倍。”
这背后其实是加密投资的 “机构化转向”—— 过去散户主导时，市场看的是 “热度、故事、涨幅”；现在机构开始掌权，看的是 “合规、风险分散、收益稳定性”。比如灰度之前推出的 “加密大盘 ETF”，把 BTC、ETH、SOL、ADA 按 6:3:0.5:0.5 的比例配置，虽然单币涨幅不如山寨币，但年化收益稳定在 12% 左右，上线 3 个月就吸引了 2 亿美元资金，远超同期单一山寨币基金的规模。
再看 ADA 和 XRP 的 ETF，即便 2025 年末能获批，也面临 “错过窗口期” 的风险。ADA 的问题在于生态发展缓慢，虽然有智能合约功能，但开发者数量仅为 ETH 的 1/5；XRP 则长期陷在与 SEC 的诉讼纠纷中，即便胜诉，机构对其 “中心化发行” 的顾虑也难以消除。某投行分析师直言：“等 ADA、XRP ETF 获批时，机构可能已经把资金投到更成熟的混合型 ETF 里，留给它们的空间不多了。”
说到底，山寨币 ETF 的到来，更像是加密市场 “去散户化” 的一个信号 —— 不再有靠单一币种赌一把的疯狂，而是转向机构主导的、更注重风险和收益平衡的玩法。对普通投资者来说，与其纠结 “DOGE ETF 能不能涨”，不如关注两类机会：一是 DAT 公司推出的 “主流资产 + 收益增强” 产品，二是聚焦某一赛道的混合型山寨币 ETF。毕竟在机构掌控的市场里，“稳健赚钱” 比 “赌暴涨” 更现实。
#etf
#BTC

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again postponed its verdict on the approval of the 21Shares SUI ETF. The delay comes as the regulator, together with major exchanges Nasdaq, NYSE, and CBOE BZX, develops generic listing standards for spot crypto ETFs. While this move aims to bring greater consistency to the approval process, it also extends the waiting period for altcoin funds, including SUI.

Approval Pushed to December
According to the latest SEC filing, the decision on the 21Shares Spot SUI ETF has been extended to December 21. The Commission had originally been expected to decide earlier, but it has now opened proceedings to evaluate whether the proposed rule change meets the requirements for approval.
Nasdaq filed for the ETF’s listing back on May 23, under the commodity trust shares rule. In July, the SEC extended its review period and called for public comments, opening the floor for stakeholders to submit arguments and data.
Although the official deadline is late December, there is speculation that the SEC could decide in October, possibly alongside a package of other spot altcoin ETFs.

SEC Prepares Generic Standards
Reports confirm that Nasdaq, NYSE, and CBOE BZX are working with the SEC on generic listing standards for spot crypto ETFs. The amendments would remove “excluded commodities” from the definition of “commodities” and set a uniform framework applicable across various products.
Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute, expects the new rules to come into effect in early October, noting that the timing likely aligns with key deadlines for current ETF applications.

SUI Price Under Pressure
While the regulator deliberates, the SUI token is trading at around $3.33, down 0.5% on the day.

🔹 24-hour low: $3.24

🔹 24-hour high: $3.36

🔹 Trading volume: down 15%
Technical indicators show SUI continues to trade below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages (MA). A drop below the 200-MA at $3.14 could send the token under the $3 mark. With the RSI at 45, some upside potential remains.

On derivatives markets, CoinGlass data shows mixed signals: open interest in SUI futures dropped 2% to $1.82 billion, while overall open interest across crypto rose 0.75%. This suggests some investors liquidated positions during the pullback, while others are still betting on a recovery.

👉 Bottom line: The delay in approving the 21Shares SUI ETF highlights the SEC’s push to build a stronger foundation for the crypto ETF sector. While altcoin funds face longer wait times, the eventual result could be greater transparency and predictability for the entire market.

#sui , #SEC , #etf , #crypto , #altcoins

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Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

The cryptocurrency market may be on the cusp of a significant development with the potential launch of the first Dogecoin (DOGE) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, REX Shares, a prominent ETF issuer, has filed an effective prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Dogecoin ETF, with a possible launch as early as next week. This filing leverages the Investment Company Act of 1940, commonly referred to as the “40 Act,” a regulatory pathway that could expedite the fund’s market entry. This article explores the implications of this development, the regulatory strategy behind it, Dogecoin’s market dynamics, and the broader context of cryptocurrency ETFs in the U.S. financial landscape.
The REX Shares Dogecoin ETF: A Groundbreaking Proposal
REX Shares, in collaboration with Osprey Funds, has proposed the REX-Osprey DOGE ETF, which would trade under the ticker symbol DOJE. This fund aims to provide investors with direct exposure to Dogecoin’s price movements through a regulated investment vehicle. Unlike traditional crypto ETFs that require extensive SEC review through Form S-1 and Form 19b-4 filings, REX Shares is utilizing the 40 Act structure, a strategy previously employed for its Solana staking ETF ($SSK) launched earlier in 2025. This approach, described by ETF Store President Nate Geraci as a “regulatory end-around,” allows the fund to bypass some of the delays associated with traditional crypto ETF approvals.
The prospectus filed with the SEC highlights that the DOGE ETF will seek to mirror Dogecoin’s price performance, primarily through investments in a Cayman Islands subsidiary, the REX-Osprey DOGE (Cayman) Portfolio S.P. This subsidiary will hold DOGE tokens or derivatives to replicate the cryptocurrency’s price movements, ensuring compliance with U.S. regulations while avoiding complex tax reporting requirements like K-1 forms. The filing also acknowledges Dogecoin’s volatile nature, warning investors of “unique and substantial risks” due to rapid price swings and market uncertainty.
The 40 Act Pathway: A Strategic Advantage
The Investment Company Act of 1940 provides a framework for registered investment companies, including mutual funds and ETFs, offering stronger investor protections compared to other structures like the Securities Act of 1933. The 40 Act imposes stricter oversight, limits leverage and short-selling, and enforces robust fiduciary governance. By structuring the DOGE ETF under this act, REX Shares can potentially bring the fund to market more quickly than competitors pursuing the traditional S-1 and 19b-4 route. This strategy mirrors the successful launch of the REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF in July 2025, which also utilized a 40 Act structure to offer exposure to Solana’s price and staking rewards.
In contrast, other asset managers like Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares have filed for Dogecoin ETFs under the Securities Act of 1933, which typically involves a lengthier SEC review process. For instance, Bitwise’s filing on January 28, 2025, and Grayscale’s filing in March 2025 are still pending SEC decisions, with deadlines extending into late 2025 or early 2026. The 40 Act pathway, therefore, positions REX Shares to potentially capture the first-mover advantage in the Dogecoin ETF market.
Dogecoin’s Market Dynamics and Cultural Significance
Dogecoin, originally created in 2013 as a lighthearted alternative to Bitcoin, has evolved into a cultural phenomenon and the world’s largest memecoin by market capitalization. As of September 5, 2025, DOGE trades at approximately $0.2129, reflecting a 116.67% increase over the past year but a 54% decline from its 2024 peak of $0.4672 in December, according to CoinMarketCap. With a market cap of around $23.24 billion, Dogecoin ranks as the eighth-largest cryptocurrency, underscoring its significant presence in the digital asset space.
The memecoin’s mainstream appeal is bolstered by high-profile endorsements, notably from billionaire Elon Musk, who has referred to himself as the “Dogefather.” Musk’s influence, including his 2021 comment on Saturday Night Live calling Dogecoin “a hustle,” has contributed to its volatility and visibility. More recently, reports indicate that Musk’s attorney, Alex Spiro, is chairing a $200 million public company focused on Dogecoin investments, further signaling institutional interest in the asset. This cultural and financial momentum makes Dogecoin an attractive candidate for an ETF, as it bridges the gap between retail enthusiasm and institutional investment.
Competitive Landscape and Regulatory Context
The race to launch a Dogecoin ETF is intensifying, with multiple asset managers vying for SEC approval. Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares have all submitted applications, but their proposals face longer review timelines due to the traditional regulatory process. For example, 21Shares filed an S-1 registration on April 9, 2025, partnering with the Dogecoin Foundation’s corporate arm, House of Doge, to support its ETF. The SEC acknowledged this filing in May 2025, with a decision deadline potentially extending to January 9, 2026. Similarly, Grayscale’s filing in March 2025 and Bitwise’s in January 2025 are under review, with analysts estimating a 63% to 75% chance of approval by late 2025.
The SEC’s approach to crypto ETFs has evolved under new leadership. Following the resignation of former SEC Chair Gary Gensler in early 2025, Acting Chair Mark Uyeda and incoming Chair Paul Atkins have signaled a more crypto-friendly stance. The agency’s dismissal of cases against crypto firms and its engagement with industry stakeholders suggest a softening regulatory outlook, which could benefit Dogecoin ETF applications. Additionally, the SEC is reviewing proposals for “generic” listing standards for crypto-based ETFs, which, if adopted, could streamline future approvals. However, the agency’s fiduciary responsibility ensures that approvals will not be granted lightly, particularly for assets like Dogecoin, which lack a futures-based trading history on U.S. exchanges.
Potential Market Impact
The launch of a Dogecoin ETF could have profound implications for the cryptocurrency’s price and adoption. Analysts speculate that if Dogecoin ETFs capture even a fraction of the capital inflows seen by Bitcoin ETFs, the impact on DOGE’s market cap could be substantial. For instance, The Crypto Basic estimates that if Dogecoin ETFs secure 25% to 40% of Bitcoin ETF inflows (approximately $8.85 billion to $14.16 billion), DOGE’s market cap could increase by $1.044 trillion to $1.067 trillion, translating to a price range of $7.1 to $11.41 per token. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has even predicted a potential rise to $15, based on historical price patterns within an ascending channel. While these projections are speculative, they highlight the potential for significant price appreciation driven by institutional investment.
However, Dogecoin’s volatility and lack of fundamental use cases compared to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum pose risks. The SEC’s acknowledgment of these risks in REX Shares’ prospectus underscores the speculative nature of DOGE investments. Unlike the REX-Osprey Solana ETF, which benefits from staking yields, Dogecoin’s proof-of-work structure offers no such passive income, potentially limiting its appeal to yield-seeking investors.
Broader Implications for the Crypto ETF Market
The REX-Osprey DOGE ETF is part of a broader wave of cryptocurrency ETF filings, with REX Shares also proposing funds tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, BONK, and the OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) token. This flurry of activity reflects growing institutional interest in digital assets, spurred by the SEC’s approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and subsequent Ethereum ETF approvals. Bloomberg Intelligence reports that the SEC is currently reviewing 92 crypto ETF applications, with decisions on Solana, XRP, and Litecoin funds expected by October 2025. The success of REX Shares’ 40 Act strategy could set a precedent for other issuers, potentially accelerating the introduction of niche crypto ETFs.
Conclusion
The potential launch of the REX-Osprey DOGE ETF marks a pivotal moment for Dogecoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. By leveraging the 40 Act pathway, REX Shares is poised to bring the first U.S.-listed Dogecoin ETF to market, potentially outpacing competitors like Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares. Dogecoin’s cultural significance, coupled with its substantial market cap and institutional backing, makes it a compelling candidate for an ETF, despite its volatility and speculative nature. If approved, the DOJE ETF could drive significant capital inflows, enhance mainstream adoption, and reshape the landscape of cryptocurrency investment. However, investors must remain mindful of the risks outlined in the prospectus, as Dogecoin’s price remains subject to rapid swings and market uncertainty. As the SEC continues to navigate the evolving crypto ETF landscape, the outcome of this filing will be closely watched by investors and industry stakeholders alike.

#DOGE  #SEC  #etf

截至 2025 年 9 月 4 日，以太坊现货 ETF 市场呈现资金分化态势，当日全市场录得 1.67 亿美元净流出，反映出投资者在短期市场情绪中的谨慎调整。

从具体产品来看，头部机构的资金动向尤为显著。贝莱德旗下以太坊现货 ETF（代码：ETHA）延续了其市场主导地位，当日实现 1.49 亿美元净流入，这也是该产品连续第 12 个交易日保持资金净流入。截至目前，ETHA 的历史累计净流入已达 131.22 亿美元，占全市场历史总净流入（131.72 亿美元）的 99.6%，其规模优势进一步凸显 —— 作为首个获批的以太坊现货 ETF，ETHA 凭借贝莱德在传统资管领域的品牌影响力，持续吸引机构资金入场，目前其资产净值已突破 130 亿美元，占全市场总净值的 46.8%。
与之形成对比的是，富达旗下以太坊现货 ETF（代码：FETH）当日遭遇 2.17 亿美元净流出，创其上市以来单日净流出第二高。尽管 FETH 历史累计净流入仍维持在 25.15 亿美元，但近期资金连续 3 日净流出，累计达 3.8 亿美元，或与部分短期投资者获利了结有关。富达作为传统金融机构中较早布局加密领域的代表，其 ETF 产品更偏向吸引风险偏好中等的投资者，资金波动性相对高于贝莱德。
从整体市场规模看，截至 9 月 5 日发稿前，以太坊现货 ETF 总资产净值达 277.80 亿美元，按此计算，其对应的净资产比率（即 ETF 管理资产占以太坊总市值的比例）为 5.34%。这一比例较年初的 3.2% 显著提升，反映出以太坊现货 ETF 作为合规投资工具，在传统资本进入加密市场中的通道作用持续增强。以当前数据推算，以太坊总市值约为 5202 亿美元（277.80 亿 / 5.34%），而现货 ETF 持有的以太坊数量已超过 1600 万枚（按当日以太坊价格约 3250 美元计算），占其总流通量的 14% 以上，成为影响市场供需的重要力量。
值得注意的是，近期以太坊网络升级预期（如 “上海升级” 后的质押机制优化）与宏观市场利率调整，是影响 ETF 资金流动的关键因素。贝莱德等头部机构的持续净流入，更多体现了长期资本对以太坊生态价值的认可；而部分产品的短期流出，则反映了市场对短期波动的敏感反应。未来随着更多机构入场与产品创新，以太坊现货 ETF 的市场结构或进一步分化，但其作为连接传统金融与加密市场的核心桥梁地位，将持续巩固。
#美联储降息预期 #etf

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted two consecutive days of massive inflows, each exceeding $300 million. After August’s wave of heavy outflows, optimism has returned to the market — but the question remains whether this signals a true trend reversal or just short-term dip buying.

BlackRock and Fidelity Lead the Inflows
According to Farside Investors, the surge was driven mainly by two giants:
BlackRock IBIT: added $362.7 million over two daysFidelity FBTC: contributed $142.5 million
Interestingly, Fidelity led on Tuesday, while BlackRock took the lead on Wednesday. This rebound follows late August’s slump, when nearly $650 million exited Bitcoin ETFs in just two trading sessions.

Analysts: More Likely Dip Buying Than a Trend Shift
Experts caution that while the inflows improved sentiment, they may not indicate a long-term turnaround.
Dean Chen of Bitunix described the move as “concentrated dip buying” rather than a decisive reversal. He pointed to arbitrage mechanisms amplifying flows, as well as institutional investors scaling in to lower their average entry price.
Another factor is the capital outflow from Ethereum ETFs, which saw their second straight day of losses totaling $135.3 million.

Investors Rotate Back Into Bitcoin
Illia Otychenko of CEX.IO noted a clear rotation from ETH back into BTC, amid uncertainty around a possible rate cut this month.
While Ethereum ETFs outperformed Bitcoin in August, since August 28 the trend has shifted, with Bitcoin regaining momentum as a long-term store of value.
Maria Carola of StealthEx added that institutions and investors are favoring stability and store-of-value narratives over growth and utility narratives, which dominate Ethereum.

Price and Options Indicate Bullish Positioning
Bitcoin is currently trading around $110,800, down 0.4% in the last 24 hours and still nearly 11% below its recent all-time high of $124,545.
Options traders, however, are positioning for a rally, with open interest building at $120,000, $130,000, and even $140,000 strike prices for the September 26 expiry.

Macro Uncertainty Adds to Bitcoin’s Appeal
Geopolitical risks are also in play. President Trump recently blasted U.S.-India trade ties as a “totally one-sided disaster” and announced 50% tariffs on imports from the country.
QCP Capital warned that these tariffs could boost inflation expectations, further reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against fiat debasement.

👉 Analysts agree: two strong days don’t make a trend. Sustained inflows over several weeks would be needed to confirm a reversal. But if momentum holds, Bitcoin ETFs could lead the next leg of the bull run.

#bitcoin , #BTC , #etf , #CryptoNews , #blockchain

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,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

Dogecoin (DOGE) has entered a new era, moving firmly into the institutional spotlight with a groundbreaking $175 million private placement by CleanCore Solutions. This deal, expected to close today, September 4, marks a pivotal moment, establishing an official Dogecoin treasury and signaling a profound shift in the meme coin's standing.
$175 Million: A Massive Influx of Institutional Capital
CleanCore Solutions, a publicly traded company, is set to complete a $175 million private placement designed to create the first-ever corporate Dogecoin treasury. This isn't just retail enthusiasm; the placement has attracted over 80 institutional and crypto investors, including major players like Pantera Capital and FalconX. This level of broad institutional participation underscores a new, serious interest in Dogecoin as a legitimate treasury asset.
Elon Musk's Influence: A Strategic Appointment
Further solidifying the institutional pivot, Alex Spiro, Elon Musk's personal lawyer, will chair the new Dogecoin treasury. While Musk himself is not directly involved, Spiro's direct connection to one of Dogecoin's most vocal proponents adds a layer of strategic importance and credibility to the initiative. This move suggests a deliberate effort to align Dogecoin with established figures and corporate governance.
The ETF Play: 21Shares Joins as Advisor
Crucially, the partnership includes 21Shares, a leading crypto ETF issuer, in an advisory role. This is a clear indicator that the long-term goal extends beyond a corporate treasury. The involvement of 21Shares suggests a strategic roadmap for legitimizing Dogecoin in traditional financial markets, potentially paving the way for a future Dogecoin ETF. Such a development would significantly enhance accessibility for mainstream investors and could unlock massive capital flows.
Market Reaction: DOGE Holds Strong Amid CleanCore Plunge
Despite the monumental nature of the news, the immediate market reaction has been mixed. CleanCore Solutions' stock (ZONE) saw a dramatic plunge of over 60% following the initial announcement. However, Dogecoin's price has shown resilience, largely holding steady within the $0.21-$0.22 range, suggesting a decoupling from the traditional stock market's cautious response. This stability indicates that the crypto market views this as a fundamentally positive, long-term development for DOGE.
This is a game-changer for Dogecoin. The closing of this $175 million treasury deal, backed by major institutions and advised by an ETF giant, pushes DOGE firmly into a new category of credible, institutionally-relevant assets. Traders should watch closely for further developments as this new chapter unfolds.
How will this $175M treasury deal impact DOGE's price in the coming weeks? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

#DOGE #DOGECOİN #breakingnews #InstitutionalAdoption #etf

published September 4, 2025):
A dormant Bitcoin wallet from 2012—dating back to the Satoshi era—transferred 479 BTC following more than 12 years of inactivity. The move realized a nominal gain of about 933.85%.
On the same day (September 3, 2025), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows totaling approximately $328.94 million, driven primarily by major players like Fidelity, BlackRock, and Ark Invest.
In contrast, Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows—around 49,829 ETH, valued at roughly $222.49 million.

Interpretation & Context
. The Satoshi-era Wallet Movement
This type of activity, where an address from Bitcoin’s earliest days becomes active after a long dormancy, is always closely watched:
Impact on the market: Such a large transfer can spark speculation. Is it an entity selling, securing funds, or relocating to cold storage? The lack of further movement may temper immediate market impact but still raises eyebrows.
Not unprecedented: For comparison, another instance earlier this year saw 80,000 BTC moved from long-dormant wallets, worth around $8.6 billion—believed by some to involve Roger Ver—causing significant buzz.

. Bitcoin vs. Ethereum ETF Flows
The divergence in ETF flows is telling:
$BTC Bitcoin ETFs: Strong inflows (~$329M) signal renewed institutional interest, reinforcing Bitcoin’s position as a favored macro hedge and “digital gold.”

$ETH Ethereum ETFs: Substantial outflows (~$222M) suggest a pullback in investor appetite or reallocations—potentially shifting capital to Bitcoin, or other strategies.
This contrast underlines a tactical sentiment differential: Bitcoin is drawing in capital, while Ethereum is currently seeing some pressure.

Quick Summary
Item Details
Dormant Bitcoin Wallet Activity 479 BTC moved after 12+ years, ~933.85% gain Bitcoin ETF Flows(Sept 3, 2025) Net inflows of ~$328.94M Ethereum ETF Flows Net outflows of~49,829 ETH (~$222.49M) Market Sentiment Institutional demand is swinging back toward Bitcoin,away from Ethereum
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Жоао Ведсон (Joao Wedson), основатель и глава аналитической платформы Alphractal, предупреждает: у биткоина $BTC остался всего месяц до окончания текущего четырехлетнего цикла. Но его прогноз включает неожиданный поворот событий.

Фрактальный анализ указывает на октябрь
Еще в 2024 году Ведсон указал, что октябрь 2025 года может ознаменовать завершение четырехлетнего цикла цены биткоина. Если его прогноз верен, текущий бычий рынок подойдет к концу.

«Конечно, было бы безрассудно утверждать, что у биткоина осталось чуть больше месяца в этом цикле, основываясь только на этом графике», — признает аналитик. Однако далее он представляет интересный краткосрочный сценарий: по его мнению, оставшегося времени может хватить для того, чтобы $BTC сначала опустился к отметке $100 000, а затем взлетел выше $140 000 перед началом медвежьего рынка.
При этом долгосрочная перспектива выглядит куда мрачнее. Если четырехлетний цикл сохранит свою силу, то падение до $50 000 может произойти в рамках медвежьего рынка 2026 года.
Дополнительные факторы риска
Этот цикл кардинально отличается от предыдущих из-за присутствия крупных институциональных инвесторов и превращения биткоина в полноценный финансовый актив. «Настоящий вопрос заключается в том, останется ли этот фрактал надежным перед лицом активных спекуляций вокруг #etf и растущего институционального спроса», — отмечает Ведсон.
Аналитик утверждает, что интригу добавляет то, что Илон Маск (Elon Musk) якобы недавно указал на возможность того, что Трамп может спровоцировать медвежий рынок в четвертом квартале 2025 года. Ведсон также заявляет, что в 2021 году Маск загадочным образом предсказал точную вершину биткоина на $69 000 за несколько месяцев вперед одним постом. Однако эти утверждения Ведсона не находят подтверждений.
Конец эпохи или новое начало?
Аналитик откровенно делится своими размышлениями: «Лично я с нетерпением жду, окажутся ли правы новые криптоэнтузиасты, утверждающие, что 4-летний цикл закончился и биткоин теперь будет расти бесконечно — или 2025 год станет последним вздохом перед резкой коррекцией, когда цены могут упасть ниже $50 000 в медвежьем рынке 2026 года».
Ведсон признает ограниченность своих прогнозов, называя их всего лишь теориями и иронично замечая, что истинные планы для биткоина знает разве что сам Сатоши Накамото. Октябрь покажет, сохранит ли биткоин свой бычий импульс или четырехлетний цикл все же возьмет верх.
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