Bitcoin’s macro cycle always tells a bigger story beyond short-term volatility. While lower timeframes create noise, the macro trend shows where BTC truly stands in the current bull cycle—and what comes next.



🔶 1. Bitcoin Macro Cycle Position


Historically, Bitcoin follows a 4-phase cycle:

1️⃣ Accumulation – Smart money loads quietly

2️⃣ Expansion / Bull Phase – Trend accelerates

3️⃣ Distribution – Market tops form slowly

4️⃣ Correction / Bear Market – Deep resets


📌 Current Position:

BTC is in a Late Expansion → Early Distribution phase.



  • New ATH attempts


  • Higher volatility


  • Liquidity grabs


  • Healthy corrections expected


This is a mature bull stage, not a fresh uptrend.



🔶 2. Long-Term Trend Outlook


Macro remains bullish, supported by:

✔ ETF inflows (even if slower, still net positive)

✔ Post-halving supply shock

✔ Institutional accumulation

✔ Gradual improvement in global liquidity


Short-term corrections of 10–20% are normal and healthy in this phase.



🔶 3. Macro Support Zones


These levels matter for long-term investors:



  • $84,500 – $80,000 → First strong macro support


  • $75,000 – $72,000 → Re-accumulation zone


  • $68,000 – $65,500 → Deep discount (only likely in global risk-off conditions)



🔶 4. Macro Resistance / Cycle Top Zones



  • $97,000 – $100,000 → Heavy psychological resistance


  • $112,000 – $118,000 → Strong candidate for cycle top


  • $135,000+ → Only if global liquidity expands aggressively



🔶 5. Macro Indicators (Still Bullish)


✔ Price above 200-Day MA

✔ Bitcoin hashrate at all-time highs

✔ Long-term holders at near-peak accumulation

✔ Miners stable, though slightly pressured


These point toward bullish macro momentum, not a completed cycle top.


$BTC

🔶 6. Cycle Outlook (Next 3–6 Months)


📌 Most Probable Scenario:



  • BTC consolidates between $80K – $100K


  • Volatile range → liquidity hunts → new ATH attempts


  • Slow grind upward rather than a parabolic blow-off


📌 Risk Scenario:



  • If global liquidity tightens → retest towards $72K – $75K



🔶 7. Long-Term BTC Thesis (Why Cycle Still Bullish)



  • Post-halving supply reduction


  • Institutional adoption rising


  • Strengthening “Bitcoin as macro hedge” narrative


  • BTC dominance increasing


  • On-chain accumulation > distribution


Bottom Line:

Bitcoin remains in a powerful bull cycle—but entering a mature stage where volatility rises and trends slow down. Macro remains bullish, even if short-term pullbacks happen.