Q4 started slow for the market. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum stayed weak and liquidity dropped after the United States shutdown. Institutions stepped back and prices moved sideways for weeks. Later the market cooled and Bitcoin moved above ninety thousand while Ethereum climbed back over three thousand. The big question now is which one can lead the recovery in the last part of the year


Institutional demand was missing in early Q4. Spot ETF flows showed steady outflows on both sides. This changed near the end of November when fresh inflows returned and helped lift confidence. Bitcoin spot ETFs showed strong inflows for two days in a row which signaled that big money was stepping back in. This gave Bitcoin fresh strength and helped build a stronger base for recovery


Ethereum ETFs also turned positive after several weeks of red. Inflows stayed steady for four days and added more than two hundred ninety million. This was the first clear sign that some institutions were returning to Ethereum as well. With ETFs back in green the next signal came from whale wallets


Bitcoin whales used the dip as a buying zone. Large holders added more than one hundred thousand Bitcoin in thirty days. This kind of activity was last seen in mid October. Shark wallets also increased their holdings and hit a three week high. When these groups buy together the market often finds strong support and quick recovery follows. This gave Bitcoin a solid lead in the current cycle


Ethereum told a different story. Whale wallets did not return yet. Most activity came from small retail traders. Spot order size data showed retail sized trades dominating for a full week. When retail leads the market it can move fast but it also becomes unstable. Retail tends to chase short term moves and this can limit steady upside growth for Ethereum


Both assets enjoyed some recovery due to rising ETF inflows. But Bitcoin has the stronger setup because it has demand from big funds and strong whale accumulation at the same time. Ethereum is improving but still lacks the support of large buyers. If the current trend stays the same Bitcoin can try a push toward one hundred thousand in Q4 while Ethereum may target three point five thousand with steady ETF support


Right now Bitcoin holds the clear edge in leading the Q4 recovery.

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