Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Just Died — And No One Noticed

Crypto Twitter went wild on October 6, calling it the cycle peak. Predictions of 80% crashes and a full-blown bear market spread like wildfire. But the reality? The math tells a completely different story.

All the indicators that perfectly predicted previous tops are silent. The Pi Cycle is untriggered at $114,000 while its threshold waits at $205,600. MVRV Z-Score sits at 2.06, far below the euphoria zone of 5.0. Puell Multiple is 0.95 — textbook undervaluation. In other words, Bitcoin isn’t at a top; it’s consolidating mid-cycle while influencers cry “sell.”

What changed? Institutions. This year alone, $64 billion flowed into Bitcoin via ETFs. BlackRock, Fidelity, and corporate treasuries absorbed every major whale sell-off without flinching. When retail drove cycles, emotions ruled price. Now, institutional settlement rules the market.

Bitcoin’s correlation to M2 money supply dropped from 0.8 to -0.18 in 2025, decoupling from monetary policy. Meanwhile, correlation to gold jumped to 0.85, turning Bitcoin into a hedge asset. The traditional 4-year halving cycle lost relevance the moment institutions took control.

Institutional inflows now control price stability. A 2017-style collapse would require every major institutional holder dumping at once — a geopolitical catastrophe, not a chart pattern. Outflows reversed $660 million lost over six days with $240 million returning in just 24 hours. Institutional hold rates remain at 99.5% even during volatility that used to liquidate retail.

Fidelity models estimate a 65% probability of 50–100% gains by Q4 2026. This isn’t hope — it’s quantitative analysis based on supply dynamics that didn’t exist in past cycles.

Three likely scenarios:

1. Evolved Bull (65%) – Sustained inflows above $5B weekly, price targets $150K–$200K by late 2026.

2. Bear Reversion (25%) – Macro shock triggers $2B+ weekly outflows, sub-$80K collapse.

3. Consolidation (10%) – Flows neutralize, range-bound $100K–$130K if the Dollar Index exceeds 110.

What would prove this wrong? Continuous outflows above $2B weekly for four straight weeks or traditional indicators firing despite strong inflows.

Bottom line: The 4-year cycle didn’t end — it evolved. Retail emotion lost control to institutional settlement. Time-based models broke, and absorption dynamics now dominate.

Position wisely, or watch from the sidelines forever.