Crypto Twitter declared Oct 6 the cycle peak, warning of an 84 % crash. The math says otherwise. Key indicators—Pi Cycle, MVRV Z‑Score, Puell Multiple—are all far from the euphoria levels that marked past tops, suggesting a mid‑cycle consolidation rather than a collapse.
What changed? Institutional inflows of $64 B via ETFs have decoupled Bitcoin from the traditional monetary‑policy rhythm. Correlation to M2 fell to –0.18, while correlation to gold rose to 0.85, turning BTC into a hedge. With institutions holding ~99.5 % of the supply, a crash now needs a macro shock and sustained ETF outflows > $2 B/week—not just chart patterns.
*Scenarios*
- *Evolved bull (65 %)*: inflows stay > $5 B/week, price aims $150‑200 K by late 2026.
- *Bear reversion (25 %)*: macro shock triggers > $2 B weekly outflows, possible sub‑$80 K drop.
- *Consolidation (10 %)*: neutral flows keep BTC between $100‑130 K.
The four‑year halving cycle has been replaced by institutional absorption. Adjust your positions accordingly—or watch from the sidelines.
