Crypto Market Update: Recovery and Key Trends
The crypto market's total capitalization has seen a 4% increase over the past 24 hours, bolstering positive indicators fueled by ongoing trade negotiations between China and the US. Economic news from the world's two largest economies remains cyclical, with optimistic updates frequently following high-level discussions. Total capital now stands at $3.92 trillion, successfully reclaiming the 50-day moving average (MA). This figure remains well above the 200-day MA of $3.51 trillion recorded at the beginning of last week.
The market sentiment index has quickly rebounded to 51, placing it firmly back in neutral territory. In a divergence from the previous "spring episode," this recovery occurred almost immediately after touching levels indicative of extreme fear.
2.Bitcoin (BTC) Performance and Outlook
Bitcoin's price surpassed $116,000 on Monday morning, having used the 200-day MA as a support level last week and successfully crossing the 50-day moving average as the new week began. The price range of $117,000–$120,000 represents a substantial resistance zone. Previous attempts to rally in August and early October proved to be short-lived. By utilizing the 200-day MA as a launchpad, BTC may now be positioned to gain sufficient momentum to establish new all-time highs, mirroring its performance in April.
Key Market Developments and Analyst Insights
3.Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)
Spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached $446.4 million last week, which is the lowest level recorded in the past seven weeks. This latest figure brings the cumulative total inflows since their January 2024 launch to a significant $61.54 billion.
Net outflows from spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs slowed to $243.9 million for the week. Since their introduction in July 2024, the cumulative net inflow for these products remains positive at $14.35 billion.
Holder Activity
Data from OnChainSchool indicates a historic high in the volume of Bitcoin that has remained dormant for over seven years and has been moved since the start of the current year. This suggests that long-term BTC holders are continuing to realize profits by actively selling their coins.
"Dolphins"—defined as entities holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which includes ETFs, corporations, and other large investors—are noted by CryptoQuant as controlling the largest segment of the Bitcoin supply, approximately 26%. Their trading activity is therefore a crucial market determinant during the advanced stages of the current bullish cycle.
Price Scenarios and Altcoin Impact
BitMine CEO Tom Lee has posited that Bitcoin could face a 50% decline, potentially to $55,000, should the US S&P 500 stock index experience a major market correction.
According to 10x Research, the market capitalization of altcoins (alternative coins) could have been $800 billion higher this year were it not for the advent of BTC ETFs. The increasing focus on Bitcoin and BTC-centric investment vehicles could lead to an even more pronounced downturn for the broader alternative coin sector.
