MacroEconomics

According to several market analysts and liquidity trackers, the U.S. financial system is currently facing one of its tightest dollar liquidity conditions in recent years. The combination of quantitative tightening, a high Treasury General Account balance, and the near-exhaustion of the Fed’s reverse repo buffer is removing cash from circulation — and crypto markets could be among the first to feel the impact.


According to Federal Reserve data, the overall balance sheet has been steadily shrinking as part of ongoing quantitative tightening. This process effectively pulls money out of the banking system, reducing reserves that are critical for smooth funding operations. While the Fed slowed the pace earlier this year, the runoff continues to pressure liquidity.


At the same time, according to Treasury Department figures, the government’s cash balance — known as the Treasury General Account, or TGA — has climbed close to one trillion dollars. When this account rises, money is effectively withdrawn from the private sector and parked at the Federal Reserve, making less available for lending, trading, or investing.


According to several economists, the situation is further complicated by the rapid decline in the use of the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility. That program previously absorbed excess cash from money markets, but with its balance now near zero, the system has lost an important liquidity buffer. Any additional tightening from the Fed or further buildup in the TGA could now drain bank reserves directly.


According to short-term funding analysts, signs of mild stress are already visible in repo markets, where the cost of borrowing cash against Treasuries has been creeping higher. If reserves keep falling, banks and non-bank lenders could face increased funding pressure — the kind of environment that historically sparks volatility across risk assets.


Crypto markets, according to liquidity researchers, have an especially high sensitivity to changes in U.S. dollar liquidity. When net liquidity — roughly measured as the Fed’s balance sheet minus the TGA and reverse repo totals — declines, crypto prices tend to follow. The connection isn’t perfect, but it’s consistent enough that traders often treat liquidity shifts as a leading indicator for market sentiment.


According to traders and macro strategists, the only way to meaningfully ease the pressure is through renewed liquidity injections. That could come from a drawdown in the Treasury’s cash account (increased government spending), a slowdown or pause in quantitative tightening, or direct balance sheet expansion from the Federal Reserve. In other words, some form of “printing” or fiscal release is needed to keep markets from tightening into a breaking point.


Until that happens, according to most macro observers, the environment remains fragile. Stocks, bonds, and crypto alike are competing for a shrinking pool of dollars, and the absence of new liquidity inflows could trigger sudden price air-pockets — particularly in high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.


The bottom line: unless the Treasury and the Fed collectively allow more liquidity to flow back into the system, the tightening cycle could easily evolve into a liquidity shock. And if that occurs, crypto — the most liquidity-dependent asset class — might be the first to crash.
#LiquidityCrisis #FederalReserve #MacroEconomics

全球儲備力量仍然是金融實力和貨幣穩定的基石。在2025年，中國、日本和瑞士繼續主導名單，而印度、俄羅斯和沙烏地阿拉伯緊隨其後。
這些儲備為什麼重要？
💱 為了支持和穩定國家貨幣
📊 為了平衡貿易流動和外部債務
🛡️ 為了保護經濟免受全球衝擊和波動
像巴西、新加坡和南韓等新興國家也在取得進展——這顯示出全球金融影響力逐漸從西方轉向東方。

“借貸者成爲借款者的主人。” 詩篇 22,7
全球經濟建立在一個承諾之上，那就是對美元的信任，但這種信任正在減弱。到2025年前九個月，美國的聯邦債務超過34萬億美元，超過國內生產總值的120%。
值得注意的是，每次提高債務上限都會人爲地延長系統的存續，同時削弱美元的信譽。

最新的美國CPI數據剛剛發佈——所有單一的通脹指標都低於預期。
CPI同比3.0%（預計3.1%）
核心CPI環比0.2%（預計0.3%）
這意味着通脹降溫速度快於分析師的預期——一個明確的信號表明美聯儲可能很快會降息，將流動性重新注入市場。
💥 加密貨幣的佈局是爆炸性的：
更便宜的貨幣 = 風險資產繁榮。
美元貶值 → 比特幣升值。
機構看到積累的綠燈。
$BTC已經開始升溫——交易員們呼籲在30天內創下新的歷史最高點。