Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 weeks and only days after it got rejected there. A 1D candle closing above it will be a strong bullish signal.
As BTC has been trading within a Megaphone pattern similar to the December 2024 - April 2025 one, a closing above the 1D MA50 might put the structure in a similar situation as April 17. As you can see that Megaphone also had a 1D MA50 rejection preceding the break-out and before that also, two Lower Lows near the 1W MA0 (red trend-line).
What it hasn't had (so far?) is a clear touch of the 1W MA50 (as on April 07) and a 1D MACD Higher Lows Bullish Divergence.
As a result, both scenarios are open for now. Until it closes above the 1D MA50, a 1W MA50 test remains possible around $104000. A closing above the 1D MA50 though strengthens the probability of a 1.1 Fibonacci extension rally at $128000.
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