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Bluechip
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感谢您的反馈，@Square-Creator-f92cd33177b58 🙏 大多数关键数字来自USGS 2025数据（中国：4400万吨，美国：190万吨，全球供应：1.3亿吨）。市场价值和需求增长基于当前电动车和可再生能源的预测。
我同意，一些地缘政治影响是前瞻性的，但数据基础是扎实的。您希望我分享完整的USGS报告链接吗？
SaraHodler
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分析发人深省，但这听起来有很多推测。我希望能看到更多可靠的数据或参考资料来支持这些说法
免责声明：含第三方意见，不构成财务建议，并且可能包含赞助内容。
详见《条款和条件》。
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THE GREAT INVERSION December 1, 2025. The United States seized control of the G20. Not metaphorically. Literally. What governs 85% of global GDP and 80% of world trade just experienced a complete ideological reversal in 24 hours. South Africa’s agenda: Climate action. Debt relief. Inequality reduction. Solidarity with the Global South. America’s agenda: Deregulation. Energy dominance. Technological supremacy. Zero mention of climate. The pivot is not subtle. It is surgical. Trump boycotted Johannesburg. Disinvited South Africa from Miami 2026. Halted aid. The gavel was never handed over. This is not diplomacy. This is displacement. The numbers tell the story the headlines will not. BRICS local currency settlements surged 28% year over year in 2025. The multipolar moment was building. De-dollarization was accelerating. Then December 1st happened. Projected impact: BRICS currency platform launch delayed 12 to 18 months. Emerging market equities repricing 4 to 8% downward by mid-2026. MSCI EM already down 2.1% in November on policy signals alone. The petrodollar system is not dying. It is being resuscitated through the largest economic forum on Earth. “Affordable and secure energy supply chains” is diplomatic code for dollar-denominated energy markets. “Pioneer new technologies” means semiconductor and AI coordination that excludes Beijing. Miami. 2026. America’s 250th birthday. The venue is the message. The world bet on American decline. Washington just called. Every emerging market position must be repriced. Every BRICS timeline recalculated. Every assumption about the post-dollar world reconsidered. The G20 was built for coordination. It just became an instrument of hegemonic reassertion. Watch Q1 2026 ministerials. Track MSCI EM. The falsification window is open. The great inversion has begun. $BTC
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$BTC Zoomed in POI. We can see that we reclaim 85.2K which is good on the LTF & now we are testing 86.8K. Ideally, once 86.8K is flipped, we could see a squeeze to fill the imbalance on the following left candle. We can have revisits of 85.2K but its imperative price remains above otherwise we risk sinking down to 82-83K.
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THE CHART THAT SHOULD TERRIFY EVERY PORTFOLIO MANAGER ON EARTH Japan’s 10 Year Government Bond Yield just hit 1.84%. The highest since April 2008. Up 11.19% in a single session. You need to understand what this means. For three decades, Japan was the anchor. Zero rates. Infinite liquidity. The foundation upon which global carry trades were built. Trillions borrowed in yen, deployed into US Treasuries, European bonds, emerging market debt, risk assets everywhere. That anchor is now breaking. The Bank of Japan held rates negative while every other central bank tightened. They defended yield curve control while inflation returned. They printed while others drained. They cannot hold the line anymore. Japanese institutions hold approximately $1.1 trillion in US Treasury securities. The largest foreign position. When domestic yields rise from nothing to nearly 2%, the math changes. Capital that flowed outward for decades faces pressure to repatriate. This happens precisely as the Federal Reserve terminates QT. Precisely as the US Treasury requires record issuance to finance $1.8 trillion deficits. Precisely as interest on American debt exceeds $1 trillion annually. Two of the three largest buyers of US government debt are stepping back simultaneously. The third largest buyer is China. When the world’s creditor nations stop funding the world’s debtor nations at artificially suppressed rates, the entire post-2008 financial architecture must reprice. Every duration bet. Every leveraged position. Every assumption about perpetually falling rates. This is not a Japanese story. This is the global story. The 30 year bond bull market ended. Most just have not realized it yet. $BTC
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THE BITCOIN TRAP One company holds 3.1% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. Yup that’s Strategy Inc (Microstrategy) Yesterday it announced $1.44 billion in cash reserves. The stock crashed to a 52-week low. Read that again. Good news. Historic crash. This is not irrational. This is the market solving an equation that cannot balance. The Numbers 650,000 Bitcoin on the balance sheet. $55.9 billion in holdings. $49.3 billion market cap. Strategy Inc. now trades for less than its Bitcoin. Every share you buy gives you less than a dollar of the underlying asset. This has never happened before. The Mechanism For four years, Strategy sold stock at a premium to buy Bitcoin. Premium funded growth. Growth justified premium. A perfect loop. The premium is gone. The loop now runs backward. The Trigger January 15, 2026. MSCI decides whether Bitcoin treasury companies belong in stock indices. JPMorgan calculates $2.8 billion in forced selling if Strategy is removed. Index funds do not choose. They execute. 44 days. The Admission The CEO stated publicly that Bitcoin sales are “on the table” if the discount continues. Four years of accumulation. 650,000 coins. Now potentially for sale. The Question The $1.44 billion reserve covers 21 months of dividends. Bitcoin pays nothing. The software business loses cash. The preferred shares demand $650 million yearly. What happens in month 22? The Stakes This is not about one stock. This is about whether a corporation can hold hard money inside soft money infrastructure without being destroyed by it. 44 days until we know. $BTC
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THIS IS THE REASON WHY WE DIDN’T SEE ALTSEASON YET. The most reliable altseason indicator just came in and the number isn’t great for now. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November came in at 48.2, below expectations of 49. That means manufacturing activity is still contracting. Quick reminder of what ISM PMI actually measures: It’s a monthly survey of 400+ manufacturing companies, where they answer basic questions like: ➠ Did new orders increase or fall this month? ➠ Is production rising or slowing down? ➠ Are you hiring or cutting staff? ➠ Are supplier deliveries faster or slower? ➠ Are inventories building up or running low? All of these responses form a single number: • 50+ = expansion • Below 50 = slowdown Today’s 48.2 reading clearly shows the economy hasn’t turned upward yet. Here’s why this matters for crypto, especially alts: In both previous cycles, ISM had a very clear relationship with big altcoin runs: ➠ 2017 AltSeason → ISM above 55 ➠ 2021 AltSeason → ISM above 55 Altseasons didn’t happen in weakness, they happened when manufacturing, demand, and hiring were showing strong momentum. Right now, ISM is still far from that level. But the important part is what comes next: • Rate cuts in 2026 • Looser financial conditions • Potential policy changes • Better liquidity across the system These are the ingredients that can gradually push ISM back above 50, and eventually toward the 55 range where previous altseasons formed. Today’s number doesn’t change the long-term outlook, it simply shows the economy hasn’t picked up yet. If ISM starts trending upward over the next few months, that’s when the early signals for a 2026 altseason become meaningful. For now, the data confirms one thing: We’re still in the waiting for expansion phase not the altseason phase yet. $BTC
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