信号类型：短期

资产：BTC 永续合约

入场价格区间：$115,500 - $116,000

止损：$117,000

获利目标：

- 目标 1：$113,500 (≈2.0% 利润)

- 目标 2：$112,000 (≈3.4% 利润)

技术分析依据：

比特币最近未能重新获得约$116K的支撑，如果持续跌破此水平，可能会加速卖出。交易者警告称，跌破$115K–$116K可能会将BTC推向约$112K区域 [oai_citation:10‡cointelegraph.com](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-fills-july-cme-gap-to-the-dollar-104k-btc-price-target#:~:text=%E2%80%9CNow%20that%20the%20gap%20is,if%20%24116%2C000%20was%20not%20reclaimed) [oai_citation:11‡coindesk.com](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/07/29/bitcoin-s-bollinger-bands-tightest-since-february-xrp-sol-establish-lower-highs#:~:text=A%20break%20below%20%24116%2C000%20would,tighter%20Bollinger%20bands%20resolve%20bullishly)。相对强弱指数（之前约为~63）已从超买水平回落 [oai_citation:12‡decrypt.co](https://decrypt.co/333192/crypto-dogecoin-tanks-bitcoin-price-tests-support-analysis#:~:text=The%20Relative%20Strength%20Index%2C%20or,days%20without%20reaching%20overbought%20territory)，表明看涨动能减弱。新近的美国贸易关税消息也对市场造成了压力——在关税担忧中，BTC下跌至约$114.3K [oai_citation:13‡cointelegraph.com](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-fills-july-cme-gap-to-the-dollar-104k-btc-price-target#:~:text=Bitcoin%20%28BTC%29%20hit%20new%20three,trade%20tariffs%20soured%20market%20sentiment)。我们计划在确认下跌后进入空头，将止损设定在约$117K（高于破裂的$116K区域），并以入场价下方约2–3%（接近$113.5K和$112K）为目标，以捕捉预期的回调。