According to data from Jin Ten, Melanie Baker, a senior economist at Royal Asset Management in London, stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in the second half of 2025. She pointed out that signs of an economic slowdown will be more pronounced in the second half of the year.
Baker believes that the risk of recession is rising, and the global and U.S. economic growth outlook is deteriorating. However, she still believes that the economy is in a slowdown phase rather than a recession phase. Trump's response to market pressures and the suspension of tariff equivalence are key factors.