NuclearThreat

#NuclearThreat
We asked ChatGPT’s o3 model to assess the potential “black swan” consequences – a term that refers to a rare, unpredictable, and devastating event – ​​that a nuclear conflict could have on the global cryptocurrency ecosystem, in the context of growing tensions between Israel and Iran over the issue of nuclear weapons.
The main scenarios considered by the model include both a full-scale nuclear war and a localized, tactical nuclear attack. According to o3, the latter could cause immediate disruption of regional exchanges, network nodes, and fiat access channels wherever the attack occurs.
Cryptocurrency Chaos in a Nuclear Conflict Scenario
In a more extreme scenario involving a large-scale nuclear exchange, the o3 model warns that electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) could disable global internet backbones , forcing transactions to rely on offline relays and emergency satellite communications systems. These potential disruptions have been compared to real-world crypto market movements seen during recent airstrikes between Israel and Iran.
On June 12, for example, the Israeli missile launch in Tehran triggered a sharp reaction in cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin fell more than 4% in 24 hours, from $106,042 to $103,053, before settling around $104,370. Total crypto market capitalization lost 3%, with Ethereum and Solana down around 7% and Dogecoin down 6%.

In the same 24-hour period, a massive wave of liquidations wiped out over $1.16 billion in leveraged positions. It was one of the most brutal trading days for cryptocurrencies in months.
With investors fleeing to traditional safe havens — like gold and oil — cryptocurrencies and other high-risk assets were sold off aggressively. The scale and speed of the collapse confirmed the AI ​​model’s central thesis: digital assets remain highly sensitive to psychological and liquidity shocks during periods of extreme geopolitical risk .
From Discontinuity to Collapse: How Attacks Could Impair Blockchains
In the event of a limited tactical nuclear attack, ChatGPT o3 noted that:
“While regional exchanges, mining facilities, and fiat access channels could be disrupted, the global nature of the blockchain infrastructure would help preserve the network’s core functionality.”
However, the psychological impact alone would likely be enough to cause a rapid 15-30% decline in major crypto assets, compounded by panic selling and cascading liquidations. These short-term disruptions would be followed by a stabilization phase, the duration of which would depend on the extent of the physical and economic damage.
On the contrary, o3 provides that:
“A large-scale nuclear exchange, particularly one accompanied by electromagnetic pulses (EMPs), poses a far more serious threat. EMPs could disable large portions of the global internet and electrical infrastructure.”
In such a scenario, blockchain continuity would depend on the availability of satellite relays, off-grid nodes, and alternative methods of communication . While consensus mechanisms could technically survive in remote areas, transaction delays, ledger fragmentation, and severe network degradation would be likely.
In both scenarios, Bitcoin and other proof-of-work (PoW) networks would be vulnerable due to their reliance on energy-intensive mining infrastructure, often concentrated in specific regions.
“Power outages or internet disruptions at major mining hubs could cripple network throughput and hash rate, rendering the system temporarily inoperable until redundancies are activated or network power is restored.” – o3 explained.
However, the decentralized nature of these PoW systems leaves a glimmer of hope: as long as some nodes remain operational, a full recovery remains possible.
Proof-of-stake (PoS) networks , like Ethereum, may have a structural advantage in such crises. They consume less energy and have geographically distributed validators, increasing the chances of maintaining consensus and operations.
However, their reliance on oracles and off-chain data feeds introduces new vulnerabilities: if oracles fail, smart contracts on DeFi platforms could behave unpredictably, leading to asset freezes, faulty liquidations, and severe liquidity crises.
Why Decentralized Architectures Could Overtake Centralized Systems
According to ChatGPT o3, systems built on decentralized architectures with built-in redundancy – such as satellite-connected nodes, solar-powered validators, and mesh relay networks – are more resilient than traditional exchanges or centralized finance (CeFi) platforms.
Among the most promising are DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) networks . Unlike traditional blockchains, which build a linear chain of blocks, DAG systems allow multiple chains or paths to evolve simultaneously. This structure allows for greater speed and flexibility in situations of node isolation or network fragmentation.
In addition to these, classic PoS chains such as Ethereum 2.0 , Polkadot and Cosmos are also considered highly resilient thanks to the diversification of validators and lower energy dependence, crucial factors if the stability of the electricity grid were to fail.
Meanwhile, stablecoins would likely face severe redemption pressure as fiat channels collapse and confidence in issuers’ reserves falters. Meme coins and purely speculative tokens with little infrastructure or utility would almost certainly collapse, losing almost all of their value in the event of a systemic crisis.

The “ flight to safety ” behavior – the rush to safe havens – is still present, even though, in the early stages of the conflict, the crypto market was treated primarily as a high-risk asset . In a more severe scenario, with actual use of nuclear weapons, the outcome is difficult to predict. However, there is a widespread narrative that cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin , can act as a hedge in times of severe global stress.

However, the o3 model introduces a counterpoint to this bullish view. The AI ​​suggests that in the immediate aftermath of a nuclear disaster, all cryptocurrencies would experience violent sell-offs , as investors flee to cash and traditional safe havens.
That said, AI doesn’t paint an entirely bleak picture . Once the initial chaos has passed, the functional differences between digital assets start to matter. Cryptocurrencies that can maintain network integrity—via decentralized validators, satellite-connected nodes, or efficient, distributed consensus mechanisms— may show signs of recovery , especially in regions where traditional banking infrastructure is damaged but internet access is still available.
Bitcoin is projected to demonstrate some price resilience compared to other assets. Its wide distribution, the simplicity of its consensus mechanisms, and its historical credibility give it a better chance of partial survival , even in extreme conditions. In contrast, more complex platforms or tokens that rely heavily on off-chain services could collapse in the presence of infrastructure failures and data feed disruptions.
In such a scenario, there would be strong regional divergences . In jurisdictions where financial systems collapse but online access remains, operational cryptocurrencies could even begin to replace traditional financial infrastructure. At the same time, governments are likely to respond in very different ways, creating a fragmented regulatory patchwork that will influence which cryptocurrencies thrive or fail in different territories.
During the long-term reconstruction phase , the AI ​​model predicts a profound reassessment of the “digital gold” theory . Gold would likely outperform all cryptocurrencies at the start of the crisis, but if the Bitcoin network were to remain operational in at least part of the world , its utility and symbolic value could favor a faster rebound, perhaps even strengthening its status as a pillar of a new monetary paradigm.

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