Betting on L1 and L2 tokens is betting that tech won't progress meaningfully and you've suddenly discovered the optimal way to transact value.
It's also a bet that front ends which actually own the user will, for some reason, be loyal to your chain instead of grabbing as much value as they can for themselves.
Users will have no idea what chains their assets are sitting on for the most part, this is a good thing for regulation and compliance, it makes checking the solvency of financial products much easier and independently possible.
CLOBs are theoretically optimal ways to transact, fundamentally different bet.
Feels like a pretty easy ETH short here to hedge some of your exposure, ETH OI has absolutely skyrocketed and inflows and nowhere near BTC ETF inflows and never will be.
First exchange that lists Hype spot probably makes $100,000,000 in fees that year, they keep the fees in native HYPE it could easily be $500,000,000 in revenue.
People freaking out about 500,000 hype probably don’t understand that if you did more than $90,000 of volume in 2024 you would have received an airdrop worth $19,000,000.
If you’re trying to farm the next HYPE airdrop and it doesn’t include something that actually generates fees for the platform, you’re going to be really disappointed.
The L1 is interesting but doesn’t benefit Hype that much. Interesting L1 protocols are still yet to come, an AMM doesn’t benefit HYPEcore much if at all, it just fragments liquidity.
Perp trading and spot trading are all that matters, spot trading arguably much more. Liquid spot markets are a critical component of a standalone T1 exchange.
- Lots of normies unable to buy, these people cannot figure out how to get onchain
- Spot not listed in any T1 exchange
- Claiming token is expensive here is not pricing in any growth, while HL’s been growing open interest double digit % WoW
- $770,000,000 at present revenues of buybacks (market buys)
- Exchanges are the most profitable businesses in the entire crypto world, you get exposure to the fastest growing one
- No unlocks from private market investors, no vesting bags and no sweet heart deals
- Most importantly builder codes, if you’re a developer building a product that wants to interact with perp trading there is only one venue to build on and that’s Hyperliquid
Still cheap, my take profit levels at $40B circulating. Not FDV.
Noticed how there’s hardly any press on @HyperliquidX? That’s because there aren’t insider private investors desperately trying to generate retail enthusiasm to dump their tokens on.
Just a cult of degens, a lot of who just hit their first home run.