DaanCrypto

"Best" Performing Crypto Sector in May ended up being DeFi. It was quite resilient and benefitted nicely from the $ETH squeeze early this month.

Memes were the initial leaders but have since come down a lot ending the month in a bad way.

$BTC still by far the strongest overall coin with some exceptions here and there.

New video live tomorrow discussing my trading plan for next week & month in more detail. ✌️

When the market cools off, it is important that the tokens you hold aren't due for any massive token unlocks.

Generally these unlocks can be absorbed well during larger uptrends but if the market is already trending down and there's little appetite for risk, holding those coins generally ends up in a painful downtrend with little bounces.

That's something we've already seen on many coins the past few years.

$TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap pretty compressed during this local range.

We've seen $BTC make new all time highs but this is still far from that point. The $840B level is key to retain the bullish momentum from this bounce since the April lows.

Bitcoin Dominance still sits near the cycle highs as well and until that comes down for several weeks, alts will still struggle besides the few baskets of outperformers which soak up all the liquidity.

It's been ages since we've seen a strong and long lasting narrative in the market.

It has been $BTC, AI & Memes this cycle and that's pretty much it.

Once you see the first signs of a new strong narrative surfacing, make sure not to wait too long reading into it and researching coins.

Some "real" sectors that I think will make a strong comeback this cycle:

RWA - So much institutional interest and very few projects to choose from. Not as diluted as other sectors.
BTCfi - Saw a strong run in 2023 but has since cooled off. Do think there's a lot of opportunities there especially seeing how much BTC has been in the spotlight and the current BTC Dominance levels.

Also still generally bullish on Gaming/Metaverse/SocialFi. But I do recognize the market might not be ready for this in its current state and these are more peak euphoria kinda narratives which will come pretty late.

$BTC Weekend time.

Friday saw a lot of volatility in stocks & BTC because of news related headlines and it being the last day of the week & month.

Not expecting much during the weekend itself and for price to remain relatively stable as it usually is.

We'll see where this wants to go next week. My base idea is that the first move in the week will likely be reversed on and for the market to trend the other way as it has been doing for like 11 of the 13 months.

So move up early in the month = Looking for shorts.
Move down = Looking for longs.

$BTC Still trading in its larger range.

If we'd see a further pullback early next month then I am keeping a close eye on the $97K-$99K region. This has good confluence with the mid range, .382 fibonacci retracement from the move up, and the Daily 200MA which is catching up to that area.

Alternatively I'd want to see a strong break above the all time high. But with this current sweep and rejection, as well as the place its trading at right now, I'd rather just take it chill and wait for the opportunities to come my way.

$BTC Still likes setting the monthly high or low during the first week of the month. It then proceeds to reverse into the other direction and generally trends that way until a new month starts.

80.7% of monthly lows/highs get put in during the first 12 trading days of the month.

Good statistic to be aware off going into June.

$ETH Back at the $2.8K level which has been the main area to watch throughout this cycle. We've tested this level from both sides many times and it generally causes a large move when broken through.

If there's one level to mark on your charts, it's this one. A breakout should lead to a move higher but for now it remains a big resistance.

$ETH Big level

$TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap needs to break above that key level which is the 2024 high.

Below there I am just considering this as a lower high and with the recent compression expecting a larger flush if $BTC doesn't support the price action soon.

Have we ever seen a project take as much attention as $LOUD?

The entire 3,3 thing happening just like the FriendTech days back in the day. When the market gets boring, things like these pop up and new narratives get shaped from it. In 2023 we had a solid altcoin run post FT running.

Let's see if @stayloudio can ignite the same kinda animal spirits afterwards.

Loudio.

Funding rates generally very flat. No real outliers here.

Spot bid on $BTC has been consistent which has kept this healthy.

Keep in mind that this does not mean prices can't go up or down as we can see elevated or negative funding rates for prolonged periods of time.

For now, nothing important to see here and I'd focus more on the charts & market structure than anything.

$BTC Has seen an above average performance for the month of May so far.

June has historically been a tough month with the worst return after September.

Generally speaking, Summer sees decreased volumes and liquidity as people go on holiday's, are out of office etc.

If there's no sign of a strong trend, be careful not to get chopped up during the Summer. 2023 & 2024 weren't very nice on the directional traders. But good for the range traders.

Eventually all the "Dead" meme coins that squeezed up multiples last month will come back home.

These were almost completely driven by shorts getting squeezed and with little consistent spot demand it will most likely just be a slow bleed back down to where it started.

It never goes down there in one straight line though but I suspect new local highs are unlikely unless there's some new crazy listing or whatever.

Personally shorting the 10-20% bounces and closing on the full retraces down the same day or the day after. Been going decently well the past week now the momentum has faded. Think that will go on for a while.

Eventually all the "Dead" meme coins that squeezed up multiples last month will come back home.

These were almost completely driven by shorts getting squeezed and with little consistent spot demand it will most likely just be a slow bleed back down to where it started.

It never goes down there in one straight line though but I suspect new local highs are unlikely unless there's some new crazy listing or whatever.

Personally shorting the 10-20% bounces and selling the full retraces. Been going decently well the past week now the momentum has faded. Think that will go on for a while.

$BTC These kind of consolidations can easily take another several days to finally come to an end.

What we also tend to see a lot with these triangles/pennants is a false breakout first. If you see something like that to either side, and price fails to push further and starts reversing, one of these scenarios could be on the board.

These could make for a decent entry trigger to a trade as usually the real move occurs to the other direction when that happens.

$BTC Consistent spot premium throughout this consolidation.

The billions of bid from Saylor, ETFs and other companies definitely helping in this case.

Keep in mind, this does not mean there are no longs, there's plenty. But it helps during longer periods of sideways when funding isn't as high as we've seen in the past as without the funding payments, positions are less likely to close/roll over.

$BTC Has been doing pretty much the same thing during the past 2 months.

Tight consolidation/range into a breakout and new range.

The trend is up but I'd still recommend waiting for a breakout of the range if you're trading this. And try to avoid trading too much within the range itself because you'll just get chopped up.

$106K-107K & $112K are the levels to watch for the next larger move.

Over the past 3 months, $BTC has outperformed 80% of altcoins in the top 100 in market cap.

This number sits much higher when we go outside of the top 100.

Even after the recent ETH squeeze early in May, overall altcoins are still underperforming on a wider scale and this has only been different for 2 short times this cycle.

One was late 2023 and one was late 2024 (post election). Where we saw at least a few weeks/months of altcoin outperformance.