CJ900X

$ETH

Focus will be on looking for longs if local range low or the green line is given.

Don't think they give us the FVG in pink but sure I'll take it.

Make ETH great again.

I hadn't been comparing our current top to the 2021 top because I thought 'there ain't no way' and anticipated a lot of ppl drawing comparisons, so would probably be a meme.

However what I will say is, back in 2021:

- We tagged prior ATH and put in a monthly SFP
- Retraced to the 0.236 fib.
- Reset RSI into the Daily 50% level

Before going on to rally higher the following month, before putting in another monthly SFP - then the rest is history.

For our recent top we have:
- Tagged prior ATH and put in a monthly SFP
- Retraces to the 0.236 fib
- Reset RSI at the 50% level.

So I'll continue looking for longs into support areas.

But I mean surely we aren't about to run it up again, make another marginal high, close June as an SFP, then nuke ..... right?

Imagine

I'm personally still looking for 125k+ this year but will remain objective and keep the above similarities in mind. Going to be an important couple of months...

$BTC

$BTC

No trigger for longs yet, but still think there's a chance we bounce before hitting 102k.

Play for me here now would be inverting this H1 FVG.

Not going to force it, just keeping an eye on reversal signatures.

Notice the reactions to 50% of each prior consolidation on the way up ...

We either shift market structure by ignoring bearish imbalances, OR we continue to respect them until 102k is tagged. The former, is where I'll take a (local) counter trend long into 107s or so.

Ranging conditions. Treating it as such.

$BTC

Trading at prior week's eq - ran a bunch of equal lows into demand. I'd fancy a bit of a bounce if we can reclaim the green line at 106.4, otherwise range low target at 102k is the draw.

Likely remain range bound for the remainder of the week and into month close - unless they try and save the monthly ... who knows. See what sets up into the AM.

Gn

$DOLO

Beautiful chart.

Range established. Strong break back into the range after a deviation below, Range High next target. Any dip back into the pink zone is a buy imo.

Think most alts leg up 20% or so from here

$ETC

Keeping an eye on this one. Likes to scam pump sometimes with ETH strength. Compress into EMAs and push, or tag demand, under/over, then send.

$BTC

🍿

$INJ

Beautiful structure at the lows.

Smashed into Monthly Demand. Finding support on the Weekly iFVG. Looks like we'll trade towards green as a key S/R level. Upon flipping this level at 16.13, I think a mid term swing into 48 is possible.

$BTC

Weekly

102k is the weekly downside draw

Imbalance at 98-100k

If we sweep the weekly draw into said imbalance I'd view it as a buying opportunity targeting 125-130k as the next major upside level. At which time we'd be in full breakout mode.

Reasons we might see a pull back here:
- We've seen 7 weekly up candles in a row, probability we get a down candle week grows over time.
- Weekly swing failure
- Shorter candle length at resistance.
- ATH was the likely target for 74k buyers

I wanted to long the imbalance a couple of weeks ago targeting this level but we never got the entry - so the gap remains open.

I'm not ready to look for swing shorts, but will entertain on an intraday basis if a setup is presented (targeting 100-102k)

Not saying we can't continue up here, but as a trader I play the probability game. For upside continuation I want a close above ATH and a rounded re-test, showing acceptance > ATH. Then I'd hunt for longs on shallow sweeps etc.

GL

$LTC looks epic

Bitcoin rn

Forgot to mention

Now we have tagged ATH, we can measure the leg down that preceded the move up from 74k for expansion targets.

I still don't know if we are going to print a true range breakout here, or manipulate above the range and reverse. I'm 50/50 so happy to wait for more price action to develop.

In the case that it is a true range breakout, I want to look to join the trend and target the purple fib at 131k, expecting minor resistance (relatively speaking) at 119.1k. Positioning will likely occur > the range but there is a case where we can still flush and tag an imbalance within said range for fuel to go higher but that scenario is slightly nuanced. Will post about said nuances if need be - but for now waiting on more PA.

In the case that it is a false breakout, range expansion targets don't matter (for the time being) and I'll look to position short and expect more ranging conditions in the 70-110k range.

$BTC

One of my leading indicators ( $COIN ) is at supply with a daily bear div.

Hmm

Are we going to lock in our 7th green week? 🍿

Quite the rally off of our 74k lows.

$BTC

$BTC

Give me this and I'll long to ATH - as long as ATH has not been tagged first.

Wicks to 95.5k are fine but needs to close back inside the FVG or ideally the range.

Friend asked if I would short $BTC around these levels.

Considering we are so close to ATH I view this level as too much of a magnet that HTF shorts are out of the question.

Intraday ranges etc - ok to short ofc. This is just playing the standard rotations week to week, day to day.

But if I am to consider a short based on the daily timeframe, my A+ setup is as follows:

I want a candle to close above ATH.
- For the A+ trade, this is engulfed the next day
- For the A- trade, we consolidate first then close back lower

No close below the candle that takes us above ATH = no shorts. Simple as that.

If we had built less of an up only structure off the 74k lows, I'd be almost convinced we go to 125k next. But since we haven't had any retrace, I am preparing a scenario where we print a MMSM (market maker sell model).

Not banking on this scenario happening. I know what I'm doing if we get a true breakout. And in prior tweets stated that if we tag the weekly fvg before ATH, then I'm looking for longs.

Here is a TLDR of the scenarios I'm looking to trade just for consistency:

1. Tag Weekly FVG into 98-101k BEFORE ATH, look for longs targeting ATH and some.

2. Tag ATH before Weekly FVG:
a) If it is a sweep / rejection, then its very case dependant i.e. need LTF to confirm next move
b) if it is a daily close above ATH, look for a short if we daily close below the open of this candle
c) if there is no daily close below the open of the candle that takes us above ATH into a new >ATH close, then no shorts whatsoever.
d) If we spend time+space above ATH, don't close below the open of the candle that took us above ATH, will be looking for pull backs to get long targeting 125-130k

Thank you for attending my ted talk

$BTC

Haven't looked at the charts much this week, had to be afk for most of it.

Set some alerts on these key levels. BTC notably stronger than alts here. Fine if we continue up, but I'd prefer to take out some downside liquidity first before looking for longs. Conversely if we take out levels to the upside and close back inside the range I think there is a case for shorts to be made.

Anyway, enjoy the weekend 🍻