Short answer: yes. But… What happened This week wasn’t driven by a single event or headline. It was the result of several pressures lining up and then releasing at the same time. Macro conditions were already fragile. • Liquidity is still being drained. • Rate expectations haven’t eased. • Tech stocks started to soften again, and crypto continues to react to that environment faster and more violently than most other assets. That part isn’t controversial. It’s been the backdrop for months. What changed this week was the structure. Bitcoin didn’t drift lower. It moved quickly, through levels that usually slow price down. That kind of move doesn’t come from people calmly changing their minds. It usually comes from positions being closed because they have to be. The clearest signal showed up in IBIT. This was the highest IBIT options volume day ever recorded, almost double the previous peak. That tells you institutions weren’t sitting on their hands. They were actively trading downside and protection at size. Heavy volume like that doesn’t mean panic, and it doesn’t mean one sided selling. It means large players were willing to transact at lower prices, immediately. At the same time; • leverage came out of the system fast. • Funding rates turned deeply negative. • Long positions were liquidated in a short window. That’s the signature of forced selling. It’s not about conviction. It’s all about margin. There’s a plausible explanation for why this unwind looked the way it did. A meaningful share of IBIT exposure sits inside single-asset funds, many of them outside the US, particularly in Asia. These structures isolate margin by design. They don’t cross-collateralize with other strategies. When something breaks inside them, the response isn’t gradual. Positions get cut. The timing was important. This happened while other leveraged trades were already under stress. • Japan’s carry trade has been unwinding. • Silver collapsed sharply. • China tightened its stance around stablecoins and tokenization. • Liquidity across several markets thinned at once. When that happens, the most liquid venues tend to absorb the shock first. Crypto did exactly that. By the end of the week, sentiment reflected the damage. Fear readings dropped to levels usually associated with crisis periods, not routine corrections. That doesn’t tell you what comes next. It only tells you that a lot of people stopped feeling comfortable very quickly. That’s the sequence of events. Where we are? After a forced unwind, markets behave differently. • Leverage is lighter now. • Funding has stabilized after turning sharply negative. • Most of the easy liquidations have already happened. That doesn’t mean the market is “safe.” It means fewer participants are being pushed out mechanically. Several institutional desks described this move as momentum driven liquidation rather than a reassessment of long term fundamentals. That distinction important, because it changes how capital responds after the fact. Selling driven by margin tends to end when margin is gone. ETF behavior fits that picture. Volume stayed elevated even as price fell. That’s not disengagement. That’s basic repositioning. Capital didn’t leave. It adjusted. Ethereum is the quiet counterpoint. Price remains weak, but usage doesn’t show stress. • Monthly active addresses just reached a new high. • The validator entry queue is the largest it’s ever been. • For every one ETH trying to exit staking, well over a hundred are waiting to enter. That kind of imbalance doesn’t show up in price immediately, but it says something about how long term holders are behaving. Institutional activity around Ethereum hasn’t slowed either. BlackRock, Fidelity, JPMorgan are still building and expanding real products. That work isn’t speculative and it isn’t sensitive to short term price moves. Regulatory progress continues in the background. It’s slow and procedural, but the tone is materially different from previous cycles. Less adversarial, more technical. That doesn’t create rallies yes, but it does change the environment over time. Bitcoin itself is sitting near long-observed historical reference levels that tend to appear after forced selling phases. These areas have never felt obvious in real time. They didn’t in past cycles either. They felt uncertain, often frustrating, and usually earlier than most people were comfortable with. So… Is bitcoin dead? Long answer: It’s officially in the dead zone now (look at the rainbow chart). Remember, long term holders start selling when everybody screams that it will go to the moon, right? So, when do they start buying? • • • • • • Price could still move lower. It could also spend time going nowhere. Markets often do that after stress events. What has changed is the quality of the selling. It looks less deliberate and more exhausted. • Fear is high (all time record “5” at Feb 6. It’s crazy). • Confidence is thin. • Narratives are scattered. That’s not a signal. It’s just context. And context is usually the only useful thing when certainty disappears… That was the week. Talk again soon… Follow me for more educational content 🫶
Jim Cramer: Nvidia is going to have to start doing an Apple like dividend and buyback combo. I know it sounds "boring" but it worked for Apple and Nvidia will have a lot of cash on hand.
Me: When Jim Cramer starts talking about $NVDA as if it’s just another consumer staple like PepsiCo, that’s a signal we might be at the peak. At this point, the only play left is to flip the Cramer trade.
The Alts market cap is moving within an ascending triangle pattern. It recently faced rejection from the horizontal resistance and is currently trading above the trendline support, where the Ichimoku cloud is also providing support.
An upward move is expected as long as it continues trading above the trendline support, while a breakdown and retest of the triangle would confirm a bearish scenario.
Multiple wave pullbacks that do not break above the top of the wave preceding the lowest trough of the wave, such as this three wave pullback, are complex pullbacks of the original trend.
#TRUMP is making its way through the downtrend channel pattern and printing new lows. As of now, price doesn't have clear areas and references, but the bearish structure is intact. You can take shorts and enjoy the trend of the market.
More than 7.8M $BTC are currently held at a loss, at $76.7k.
The supply overhang from buyers near cycle highs remains substantial, a weight the market will need to absorb before any sustained move higher becomes structurally credible.
⚠️ALERT: ANOTHER MAJOR HACK STRIKES CRYPTO; $76M EXPLOIT HITS MONAD
Echo Protocol on $MON was reportedly exploited after an attacker minted 1,000 eBTC worth roughly $76.6M, as per Lookonchain.
The hacker allegedly used part of the funds as collateral on Curvance to borrow WBTC, bridged assets to Ethereum, swapped them into $ETH , and routed roughly 385 ETH through Tornado Cash.
The attacker still reportedly controls around 955 eBTC worth over $73M.
This now marks the THIRD major crypto exploit in just 4 days!
DASH is moving in a ascending channel followed by an upward move. Currently it is trading below the resistance trendline.
We've to keep an eye on a breakout retest of the channel for the bullish confirmation, until that we might see further movement in between the channel.