I've been digging into the on-chain data again, and the picture for long-term holders is pretty telling right now.
LTH unrealized losses sit around 15.5 percent. That's elevated for sure, showing some real pain from the drawdown, but we're nowhere near the 30 to 40 percent plus levels that marked the true capitulation bottoms in past cycles.
These holders are still holding steady overall. It feels like the kind of shakeout that weeds out the weak hands without breaking the backbone of the market.