🟢 Overview

Solana (SOL) is clinging to a pivotal demand zone and, so far, the floor is holding—just not convincingly. Since the October 10 low, price has meandered more than it has marched, suggesting a market still deciding whether to trend or just tread water.

📊 Key Support (Line-in-the-Sand)

$172.74–$198.69 — This is the battleground for bulls. Lose it decisively and momentum likely flips.

  • First cracks below $172 would expose:

    • $150.24–$160.71 → minor, likely flimsy support

    • $117.41–$138.26 → meatier daily demand; stronger bounce potential

⚠️ Caution: Tepid Buy Reaction

Yes, SOL has pulled back in three waves into a major Fibonacci pocket—but the bounce lacks thrust. True reversals usually announce themselves with a punchy, impulsive leg higher. We’re not there yet. Without stronger follow-through, this looks more like “buyers defending” than “buyers attacking.”

🔄 What Could Come Next

  • Bullish Path (Diagonal C-Wave):

    If SOL bottomed on Oct 10, the next advance may unfold as a grinding, overlapping diagonal—higher highs, but with chop and fakeouts.

  • Trend Confirmation Checklist:

    We still need five clean waves up from the Oct 10 low to confirm a durable uptrend. Until then, rallies are suspect and dips remain tests—not gifts.

🧱 Resistance to Beat

Sideways, overlapping price action after a three-wave pop from the October low keeps conviction muted. No confirmed new impulse until SOL reclaims and holds above its near-term resistance band (watch the upper half of the $172.74–$198.69 range). Acceptance above that area would tip bias toward a sustained push higher.

⏱️ Short-Term View (Weekend Game Plan)

Chop rules the lower timeframes. That said, as long as SOL holds above ~$181.70, a higher C-wave can still play out over the weekend—even if it’s messy. Lose $181.70 with momentum, and eyes shift quickly to $172; break there, and the $150s come into focus.

🧭 Trading Notes (Not Financial Advice)

  • Bullish trigger idea: Clear breakout + acceptance above the upper third of $172.74–$198.69, then look for follow-through and shallow pullback holds.

  • Bearish risk line: Daily close below $172 opens a path toward $150s, with the $120–$138 zone as the sturdier safety net below.

  • Structure > Opinion: Let the wave count confirm—five up from the low or it ain’t the real thing.


    #solana #CryptoTA #priceaction

(This is market commentary, not financial advice. Manage risk.)