XRP's price is currently facing a critical technical threat as key moving averages are edging dangerously close to forming a Death Cross. This traditionally bearish pattern signals potential long-term weakness, yet encouraging on-chain data suggests XRP could defy the indicator and repeat its massive July 2025 rally.

I. The Death Cross Threat and the Historical Anomaly

The looming technical event involves the convergence of two key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs):

  • The Formation: A Death Cross occurs when the 50-day EMA moves below the 200-day EMA, indicating that short-term price momentum is weakening relative to the long-term trend. This setup often triggers caution and sell-offs among traders. * The Anomaly: Intriguingly, the last time XRP's EMAs neared a Death Cross—in July 2025—the token instead experienced a sharp and powerful surge of 53%, suggesting the pattern can be inverted by strong underlying conviction.

II. On-Chain Data: Maturing Investors Could Save the Rally

On-chain analysis of holder behavior reveals a trend that could provide the necessary support to counteract the bearish technical signal:

  • Mid-Term Holders Grow: Data from the HODL Waves chart shows a notable increase in mid-term investors (those holding for 6 to 12 months). This cohort's dominance grew from 24.5% to 26.2% in just two days. * Reduced Selling Pressure: This shift indicates that short-term traders are transitioning into more convicted, longer-term investors. Such behavior strengthens price stability by reducing selling pressure and fueling more sustainable growth, potentially allowing XRP to repeat its previous breakout.

III. Critical Price Levels and Targets

Trading at $2.55 at the time of writing, XRP is facing two clear paths defined by immediate support and resistance:

  • Critical Support to Defend: XRP must hold the $2.54 support level.

    • Downside Risk: If the Death Cross materializes and support is lost, XRP could face a short-term correction, potentially dropping toward $2.35 or lower.

  • Key Resistance to Break: To invalidate the bearish outlook and confirm a rally, XRP needs a successful push above the $2.64 resistance level.

    • Upside Target: A confirmed break above $2.64 could propel the token toward $2.75 and potentially $2.85, signaling the start of a broader bullish move akin to the July 2025 surge.

IV. Conclusion: The Dual Path

XRP is at a pivotal moment. While the imminent Death Cross is a clear bearish warning, the simultaneous increase in long-term conviction from mid-term holders offers a powerful counter-signal. The outcome depends entirely on whether holders can sustain confidence and push the price past $2.64, or if the technical fear will trigger selling pressure that breaks the $2.54 support, risking a drop to $2.35.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and is based on third-party on-chain and technical analysis. The views expressed do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and speculative. Readers must conduct their own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.