I bought my first BTC sub $10B Marketcap ($700) and made first Million in 2017 with ICOs. Since then I learned a thing or two about BTC. My biggest lesson was: DO NOT FUCKING SELL.

Indicators that mark the bottom

1. Miner capitulation (100% success rate)

Puell Multiple is a Bitcoin valuation metric that analyzes miner revenue. If score is below 0.5 all miners are mining at a loss. Every time indicator was sub 0.5 we bottomed and price went up shortly after. It hit 0.66 so far.

I give it decent chance we will not go to 0.5 this time as people front run indicators with 11 years accuracy.

2. Bitcoin Production Cost (90% success rate)

How much money, it costs miners right now to create one new Bitcoin — mostly electricity + machine wear and tear. Right now in February 2026, it's around $77,000–$79,000, so if BTC price stays way below that for too long, miners dump all their BTC to keep lights on, once they run out of BTC we usually bottom. Miners have around 20% of all BTC right now.

In other words, miner capitulation is like Saylor having to dump the bottom, to stay in business. Its the stuff clueless bears tweet cause they have fuck all understanding of BTC.

3. MVRV Z-Score (80% success rate)

MVRV Z-Score compares today's BTC price (what everyone's paying) to the average price people actually paid when they last bought/moved their coins — then it adjusts for how wild BTC prices usually swings to stay more or less accurate.

Currently sitting at 0.4 and we bottom at -0.3, many will look at this and wait but we underperformed the average upside by 130%. Possible the same happens on the downside as well, as people frontrun the indicators. That would mean we bottom around 0.20 ($59,000 USD per BTC).

4. Supply in Profit and Los

Currently 54% of onchain BTC is in profit, historically when that number hits 45% or lower we are close to the bottom. This indicator does not account for ETFs or saylor who now have 9.9% of supply and both are underwater.

This means when adjusting the on-chain "percent supply in profit" (Glassnode's ~54% as of Feb 19), subtract most or all of the ~9.9% of supply, pushing the effective % in profit lower closer to around 47%.

Basically typical Bottom.

One can take a lot more indicators but that will just waste time on indicators that are less accurate.

Make a plan that works for you and stick to it. Simpler is usually better.
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