📉 EURUSD 4H Market Bias – Institutional Outlook


Bias: Bearish while price stays under 1.1645–1.1650. Structure shows lower highs, BOS/MSS down, descending trendline, and prior support flipped to resistance.


Key Liquidity Magnets:

đŸ”» 1.1605 → sell-side liquidity pool / demand zone

đŸ”» 1.1580 → deeper sell-side liquidity target

(Stretch: 1.1565 if momentum accelerates)


Supply Zone / FVG:

📍 1.1628–1.1638 → key bearish FVG + mini OB

This is the “return to the scene” zone for potential shorts.


Trade Plan:

🔾 Entry: Short rejection from 1.1628–1.1638 (wait for bearish engulfing / rejection wick)

🔾 Stop: Above 1.1645–1.1650 (last LH + invalidation)

🔾 Targets: 1.1605 (TP1), 1.1580 (TP2), extend 1.1565

🔾 R:R ~1:2 to 1:3 if executed with patience


Confluence Checklist:

✅ EMAs 50 < 100 and price under both

✅ RSI(14) → bearish divergence / rejection under 50

✅ MACD → bearish cross / fading histogram

✅ Session timing → London into NY open for clean liquidity sweeps


Alternate Scenario:

If H4 closes above 1.1650 → shorts invalid. Expect neutral → bullish pullback toward 1.1665–1.1680 (higher supply zone). If acceptance above 1.1685, look for long setups on pullbacks.


Risk & Execution:

⚠ Risk ≀1% per setup. No martingale.

⚠ Don’t chase if FVG doesn’t fill — wait for structure.

⚠ Check EUR/USD calendar (ECB, PMIs, jobs) before entry.


🎯 TL;DR – Base case: Short pullback into 1.1628–1.1638 → TP 1.1605 / 1.1580. Flip bias only if 4H closes >1.1650.


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