Altcoins have reversed from sub-8% outperformance levels five times since 2019, often followed by sharp rallies.
Historical market cap trends show 75x and 120x increases during past altseason phases in 2017 and 2021.
Current market structure mirrors previous altseason starts, with projections indicating a potential 150x surge to $900 billion.
A detailed review of recent market data shows that altcoins, excluding stablecoins, are nearing historically low performance levels compared to Bitcoin. This change follows a practice observed multiple times since 2019, where strong market rallies have followed low altcoin performance. The latest metrics place altcoins near the 8% outperformance threshold, a level previously linked to significant upward reversals. Market analysts are now watching for signs that could indicate the beginning of another altseason cycle in 2025.
Reversal Patterns Repeating Since 2019: What Follows the 8% Outperformance Threshold?
According to an observation by LSEG Data Stream, since early 2019, five notable altcoin reversals have occurred after underperformance dipped below the 8% mark. In each case, altcoins surged shortly afterward, reaching between 60% and 90% outperformance over BTC within a few months.
Source: LSEG Data Stream
These regressions were marked on the charts as indicated by the green arrows and circled low points, showing a clear uniform trend in years. The design includes sharp recoveries in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Each retrieval followed a short period of severe underperformance. This recurring point has served as a turning point for capital rotation into altcoins.
Bitcoin dominance has historically weakened once this level is reached, leading to broad altcoin gains. In the current cycle, data from early 2025 confirms a similar drop near the 8% level. This marks the fifth such occurrence since 2019 and indicates a familiar structure forming in the market. Recovery movements in past cycles were swift and substantial, often forming within weeks of reaching the threshold.
Market Cap Analysis Supports New Altseason Phase
A separate analysis tracking the altcoin market cap also identifies repeated expansion phases. In 2017, the first recorded altseason saw a 75x increase in market cap. Another rally occurred in 2021, reaching a 120x rise from the cycle low. Both events began near long-term support levels and peaked near established resistance zones.
According to Simba’s chart, current market cap levels again align with that same lower support trendline. This position mirrors the start of the previous two altseason phases. The chart projects a third altseason phase underway, with potential gains extending to a 150x increase.
Source: Simba (X)
Dashed lines on the projection indicate potential volatility, though the pattern still follows the previous formations. Market cap could peak near $900 billion based on the outlined trajectory. The trendline remains consistent across all three phases, showing recurring exponential growth after each cycle low. The data indicates the market is now positioned in early Phase 3.0, with momentum building from recent lows.
