Cardano ETF approval odds reach 76% on Polymarket, with $374,000 wagered by traders amid growing institutional optimism.
Bloomberg analysts forecast over 90% chance of approval, fueling bullish sentiment among traders monitoring the SEC’s timeline.
ADA's near-term direction may hinge on holding $0.512 support, with potential upside targeting $2.60 if bullish signals follow through.
Traders on blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket are assigning a 76% probability to the approval of a spot Cardano ETF in 2025. More than 374,000 dollars have been bet on this result, which represents great market confidence in a positive decision of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The spike in confidence reflects a broader optimism in the digital asset space. Users on Polymarket are paying 76% for “Yes” shares, aligning with heightened anticipation of regulatory progress. The increase in odds comes as communication between the crypto industry and the SEC shows signs of improvement.
Bloomberg Analysts Support ETF Approval View
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have reinforced the positive outlook. Both now estimate a 90% or higher chance for the SEC to approve Cardano and similar altcoin ETFs. Their assessment has contributed to the growing sentiment backing ADA.
Despite the ETF optimism, Cardano’s native token, ADA, continues to trade with volatility. It is currently priced at $0.5603, gaining 0.7% in the past 24 hours. However, the token remains down by 25.4 percent over the past month. Investors are watching whether the price can sustain above critical levels.
ETF Decision Timeline Could Be a Turning Point
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the SEC should decide on Cardano ETFs. The players in the market see this move as one likely to lead to increased adoption scale. If approved, a Cardano ETF could mirror the impact seen with Bitcoin, where institutional investment surged following ETF launches.
Technical analysts are divided on ADA’s next move. One analyst suggests the token is approaching a trendline similar to one that led to a 240 percent gain. If repeated, ADA could revisit the $2.60 level. Another analyst points to recent breakdowns below micro support, suggesting short-term weakness.
The $0.512 support level remains a critical marker. Holding this range could help ADA stage a recovery. A drop below this point might signal extended downside pressure, despite the long-term ETF optimism.
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