Toncoin (TON), the native cryptocurrency of The Open Network (TON), stands out among altcoins thanks to its deep integration with Telegram, which boasts over a billion daily users. Despite this strategic advantage, TON has lost more than 60% of its value from its all-time high.
Data indicates that TON has struggled to regain user interest since the decline of the tap-to-earn trend.
Over 68% of TON Supply Held by Whales While Long-Term Holding Remains Low
According to CoinMarketCap, over 68% of the total Toncoin supply is held by whale wallets. This disproportionate distribution raises red flags, increasing the risk of price volatility caused by large-scale trades from major holders.
Toncoin (TON) Supply Distribution Structure. Source: CoinMarketCap.
Additionally, only under 20% of TON holders have kept their tokens for over a year. This low long-term holding rate suggests that most investors speculate on short- to medium-term price movements rather than committing to a long-term investment.
Such instability may deter new investors, who often prefer tokens with wider distribution, a strong base of long-term holders, and less exposure to whale-driven selling pressure.
Toncoin (TON) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
Over the past year, TON’s price has plunged by more than 65%, dropping from $8.20 to $2.84. This suggests that the majority of investors who entered within the last 12 months are now underwater.
Whales May Be Accumulating Below $3, Data Suggests
Data from Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution indicates that most TON supply was accumulated at below $3. Combined with the whale concentration data from CoinMarketCap, this points to significant accumulation by large wallets before 2024, when TON was trading under $3.
Toncoin Cost Base Distribution. Source: Glassnode.
“Cost Basis Distribution for $TON reveals four key supply clusters:• $2.01–2.05 (1.32B TON)• $2.18–2.22 (535M TON)• $2.91–2.98 (863M TON)• $3.83–3.87 (261M TON)
These levels represent zones of investor cost concentration — potential support/resistance,” Glassnode reported.
If prices fall further, even whales could face losses. Conversely, current price levels near historical cost bases may provide a solid support zone for potential recovery.
Daily Active Wallets Hit Yearly Low, but Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive
Activity on The Open Network has been quite low. As of June 25, there were only 78,000 active wallets, the lowest level recorded this year. According to Artemis, this represents a decline of over 82% from a peak of more than 450,000 active wallets at the beginning of the year.
TON Daily Active Address. Source: Artemis.
Despite sluggish metrics following the tap-to-earn craze, some experts remain optimistic about TON’s long-term trajectory.
Tracy Jin, COO of the MEXC exchange, believes Toncoin could become the first blockchain used in daily life by 2027, driven by its deep integration with Telegram and focus on user experience.
“TON is betting on a completely different future — one that’s already unfolding inside Telegram. With over 900 million users globally, Telegram is the largest active social layer in crypto — and TON is the only blockchain natively embedded into it. This isn’t just about building dApps; it’s about making Web3 disappear into the UX in the best possible way.” – Jin mentioned to BeInCrypto.
New investors currently need to see a recovery in price and network activity despite the positive long-term predictions. Given the overall negative sentiment in the altcoin market, this presents a challenge for the project.
