My market take from 30,000 feet. The general trend is towards a late stage capitalism blow off top over next 3-8 years. That means fiat depreciation, most risk assets rallying; gold, silver, and particularly bitcoin doing well. BUT, we’re currently in a countertrend move that could last a year. Lots of forces supporting a strong USD locally - the stablecoin bill may generate a trillion dollars of marginal USD and t-bill demand. The growing fiscal deficits are strongly bullish USD (until people lose confidence in US debt eventually.)

Geopolitically, we may be in for a lull in conflict that increases risk appetite with Russia and Iran both much weaker than many anticipated. The really scary geopolitical conflict comes when China invades Taiwan, might have a few years before then.)

Bitcoin’s high time frame idiosyncratic strength suggests to me that it may perform reasonably well even amidst a general countertrend move (and then when geopolitical tailwinds are back in its favor, it’ll go parabolic.) I’ll be adding exposure on any major pullbacks (I’m already long, a pullback to $92k area would be healthy.)

Lots of rooms for good news in equities with AI agents producing massive productivity gains that translate to corporate revenues in non-AI companies soon. Similarly, the pace of medical advances tied to AI research is starting to go parabolic, life expectancies sharply rising.

Biggest risk to a portfolio of alternative assets is increasingly non-market. Social engineering attacks, nationalization of property, sharply changing local laws that may devalue real estate on a dime, and confiscatory tax regimes are all rising risks in many places and for many assets.