đ„ Let's Analysis!
Hereâs the current market snapshot:
đ§ Will altcoin season kick off after the ceasefire?
1. Market reaction to the ceasefire
The IsraelâIran ceasefire (June 24, 2025) sparked a broad risk rallyâstocks, risk-sensitive currencies, bitcoin, and ether rallied on improved sentiment .
Specifically, altcoins like Ether, Solana, and Cardano jumped ~7% after the announcement .
2. Indicators of âaltseasonâ
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is very high (65â67%), and the Altcoin Season Index is at multi-year lows (12â21), clearly in âBitcoin seasonâ territory .
Historically, alt seasons begin when BTC.D drops below ~60â65% and the index rises above ~75âneither has happened yet .
But analysts note seasonality: JuneâJuly is when altcoin rotation often begins, once BTC peaks .
3. The short-term versus longer-term view
Short-term: Ceasefire reduced volatility, prompting a bounce in both bitcoin and altcoinsâliquidations eased and traders rotated into alts .
Mid-to-long-term: Fundamental conditionsâBTC dominance, institutional flows, ETF pipeline for altcoinsâall favor a slow-building altcoin rally, rather than a sudden surge .
đ Summary & Takeaway
Will altseason be triggered by the ceasefire? Not immediately.
The ceasefire has improved risk sentiment and sparked notable short-term rallies in cryptos.
But core metrics (BTC dominance, altcoin season index) do not yet reflect a full altcoin cycle.
What to watch next?
Monitor BTC.Dâif it dips below ~60â65% and the Altcoin Season Index climbs toward 75+, that suggests a genuine altcycle is underway.
Seasonal timing (late JuneâJuly) plus reduced geopolitical tension and incoming altcoin ETFs could act as catalysts.
â Actionable Tips
If youâre short-term trading, the post-ceasefire bounce is an opportunityâbut volatility remains.
If you're positioning for altseason, patience is keyâlook for confirmation via dominance and index shifts rather than relying on single events.
Let me know if youâd like a deeper dive into specific altcoins, ETF impacts, or crypto season indicators!