The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated significantly in recent days, based on available information. On June 12-13, 2025, Israel launched a major military operation dubbed "Rising Lion," targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, military installations, and senior leadership. The strikes hit key sites, including the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, and killed several Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists. Israel claims the attacks were preemptive, asserting that Iran was developing nuclear warheads, though U.S. intelligence has not corroborated this, maintaining Iran has not yet moved to weaponize its nuclear program.
Iran condemned the strikes as a "declaration of war" and reported significant casualties, with state media claiming 78 deaths and 329 injuries in Tehran alone. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei swiftly replaced slain military leaders to project stability, while Tehran vowed a "proportionate" response, potentially targeting Israeli assets or U.S. bases in the region. Iran also denied launching drones toward Israel in retaliation, though Jordan intercepted Iranian drones in its airspace.
The U.S., under President Trump, has distanced itself from the strikes, denying direct involvement but acknowledging prior awareness. Trump warned Iran of "more brutal" Israeli attacks if it does not agree to a nuclear deal, while urging diplomacy to avoid a broader conflict. However, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, scheduled for Oman, were postponed after the strikes, dimming prospects for a diplomatic resolution. The U.S. evacuated non-essential personnel from Iraq and other regional bases, citing fears of Iranian retaliation.
Tensions have been fueled by prior events, including Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on Israel in October 2024 and April 2024, which Israel cited as justification for its actions. Israel’s strikes also exploited Iran’s weakened regional position, with proxies like Hezbollah and Syria’s former Assad government diminished. Meanwhile, Iran claims to possess sensitive documents about Israel’s nuclear arsenal, threatening to use them as leverage.
Global reactions include calls for restraint from the IAEA, which condemned attacks on nuclear sites, and European leaders warning of regional instability. Oil prices surged due to fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict risks drawing in other actors like Hamas, which expressed support for Iran, and the Houthis, who warned of war if Iran is further attacked.
Both sides appear braced for further confrontation, with Israel signaling ongoing operations and Iran rebuilding its defenses. The situation remains volatile, with significant risks of a wider regional war.