Bitcoin's previous two cycle tops occurred 518 and 546 days after halving events.
The current cycle is 413 days post-halving, suggesting more upside potential.
Historical patterns indicate a possible Bitcoin peak around December 2025.
The historic halving patterns of Bitcoin are still used to generate market expectations, and the most recent observations indicate the potential peak of the cycle towards the end of 2025. The past two Bitcoin halving cycles suggest a market peak of over 500 days after the halving event. The current cycle, at 413 days since the most recent halving on April 20, 2024, could still have a significant runway for growth if history repeats.
Historical Trends Suggest Consistent Post-Halving Growth
A closer examination of the price action of Bitcoin subsequent to halving events reveals a definite upward trajectory well beyond one year. The cycle for 2016 saw the market peak 518 days after the halving, but the 2020 cycle took a little longer, peaking 546 days after the halving event occurred. The cycles not only passed the one-year mark but revealed a pattern of cycle duration increasing as well.
https://twitter.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1933051323328700757
This trendline indicates that there may be a window of opportunity for the next big peak occurring between 500 to 550 days after the last halving. However, should the current cycle correspond to this timeline, analysts indicate that Bitcoin may reach a new all-time high between the end of Q4 2025 and the beginning of 2026.
Mid-Cycle Momentum Builds
As of now, Bitcoin has entered the 413th day since the fourth halving. The price recently stood at $107,939, showing a mild 1.5% daily decline. Key support and resistance levels have been identified at $107,601 and $110,269 respectively. Despite the minor pullback, market structure remains firm, and historical context implies that Bitcoin might still be in the middle phase of its current cycle.
This timeline positions the market within the earlier stages of the cycle top window observed in previous cycles. Should the historical range repeat, Bitcoin could still have at least three to six months of potential upward movement.
Implications for Market Timing and Strategy
While no cycle is guaranteed to mirror the past exactly, the gradual lengthening of post-halving market peaks points to maturing investor behavior and evolving market conditions. Analysts note that institutional interest and macroeconomic conditions now play a bigger role than in previous cycles, which may stretch or alter the traditional halving-to-peak timeline.
Investors are counseled not to put sole reliance on historical averages but to monitor macroeconomic indicators, regulatory development, and general market sentiment along with these schedules. The correlation between halving events and price peaks is a useful metric, but it must be viewed as one element in a general strategic assessment.
Looking Ahead: Potential for Further Expansion
If the current pattern continues, and the market reaches a new peak around the 550-day mark, Bitcoin could be poised for another significant rally in the final quarter of 2025. With 413 days already in, and history hinting at more room for growth, the next few months could be critical in determining the trajectory of this cycle.
