Financial markets are bracing for the upcoming Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting, but hopes for a rate cut have nearly vanished. The odds of the Fed lowering rates have dropped to just 0.1%, signaling near-unanimous market belief that rates will remain unchanged.


🔹 Probability of Steady Rates? 99.9%

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are overwhelmingly betting that the target range will stay between 425 and 450 basis points. This sentiment is echoed by Polymarket, where traders have drastically shifted expectations. In May, there was still a 9% chance of a cut, but that has now shrunk to almost zero.


🔹 Labor Market & Inflation Data Crush Expectations

Recent strong U.S. job data and persistently high inflation have convinced the Fed there's no reason to rush. According to the latest FOMC minutes, central bankers remain extremely cautious, while monitoring both geopolitical and fiscal developments — including Trump’s tariffs.

🔹 Trump Pushes Aggressively for Cuts

While the Fed remains on hold, calls for cuts are growing louder. Donald Trump is demanding an immediate 100-basis-point rate cut, calling it rocket fuel for the economy. In his usual style, he lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “disaster.”

Trump also hinted that he may soon replace the Fed Chair. According to Polymarket betting odds, the leading candidate to succeed Powell is Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Fed’s Board of Governors.

Even with mounting political pressure, the market consensus is clear: a June rate cut is highly unlikely. For now, all eyes are on upcoming CPI inflation data, which could determine whether the Fed shifts its stance before summer ends — or if rate changes will be postponed until fall.



#Fed , #JeromePowell , #centralbank , #worldnews , #USDOLLAR

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