Crypto market participants are closely watching several US economic indicators this week that will influence Bitcoin (BTC) price action.
While inflation data has long dominated market sentiment, labor market metrics are now emerging as a critical driver of BTC’s next big move.
US Economic Indicators Crypto Traders Must Watch This Week
The following US economic indicators could influence investor sentiment and drive Bitcoin volatility this week.
US Economic Indicators This Week. Source: MarketWatch CPI
The US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data is due on Wednesday, June 11, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
This US economic indicator is a key indicator of inflation, reflecting typical households’ cost of living and purchasing power. As a lagging indicator, the US CPI is a primary focus for inflation targeting and is tied to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) 2% target.
Bloomberg’s survey suggests inflation may have spiked in May amid tariff chaos in the US. Specifically, the survey suggests a spike to 0.3% for Core CPI after 0.2% in April.
Projected Change in US CPI in May. Source: Bloomberg Survey
BeInCrypto reported that US CPI data showed inflation in the US rose at an annual rate of 2.3% in April, slightly below the pace witnessed in March. This means that it cooled in April, month-over-month (MoM).
This US economic indicator will be released on June 11. Crypto traders and investors will watch to see whether the May data will extend the three-month streak of monthly decline in headline inflation to a possible fourth.
Bitcoin is often viewed as a potential hedge against fiat uncertainty. Therefore, if the CPI data shows inflation cooled in May, signaling a more dovish Fed stance or accommodative policy, it would reduce the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes.
Such an outcome would increase investor appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially boosting prices. It is also worth noting that if inflation cools significantly, it may reduce Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge, as investors may favor traditional assets like bonds or equities. This is especially true given Bitcoin’s recent negative correlation with gold.
According to data on MarketWatch, however, economists anticipate CPI inflation to rise to 2.5% year-over-year (YoY). This would indicate a slight uptick in inflation, potentially reversing the cooling trend.
Specifically, it would keep the Fed cautious, reducing the likelihood of a June or September 2025 rate cut, as higher inflation signals persistent price pressures. The Fed could maintain or even consider tightening policy to curb inflation.
This would strengthen the US dollar and increase Treasury yields, causing Bitcoin’s price to falter. However, investors wary of fiat devaluation could channel capital into Bitcoin.
CPI showing inflation rose at 2.5% annually would show that while inflation is ticking higher, it remains below the 3.1% peak seen earlier in 2024. This is still close to the Fed’s 2% target, so it may not immediately signal aggressive policy tightening. However, it could dampen expectations of near-term rate cuts.
“Despite these projections, I believe it’s premature to expect a meaningful uptick in core CPI…I anticipate the earliest signals of rising inflation to emerge in July,” said Andrea Lisi, of Lisi Quant Analysis.
Initial Jobless Claims
BeInCrypto reported how labor market data is steadily overtaking inflation as Bitcoin’s next macroeconomic catalyst. The initial jobless claims, a US economic indicator measuring the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance, are due this Thursday, June 12.
As one of the gauges of economic growth, the initial jobless claims could also influence Bitcoin price volatility.
For the week ending May 31, initial jobless claims reported were 247,000, and now economists forecast a drop to 242,000. This optimism comes after Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) showed the US added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding the 126,000 estimated.
NFP last week. Source: Econoday on X (Twitter)
Meanwhile, unemployment was steady at 4.2%. Rising claims signal a weakening labor market, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts to stimulate the economy. This is bullish for Bitcoin and crypto as lower interest rates weaken the dollar and boost demand for risk assets like Bitcoin.
PPI
US PPI (Producer Price Index) is another economic indicator to watch this week. It measures prices received by producers at the wholesale level. This US economic indicator also helps forecast future consumer inflation and is often seen as a leading indicator. Notably, however, it is not tied to the Fed’s 2% target.
In April, PPI inflation rose at an annual rate of 2.4%, below the 2.5% target and even lower than the 3.4% recorded in March. If the trend continues, it will be bullish for Bitcoin and crypto.
“CPI on Wednesday along with PPI on Thursday should give us a very good idea as to what we’re going to see with PCE prices at the end of the month. It’s worth noting that absent a big surprise, we’re likely to see a notable reacceleration in the core figures this month,” noted a popular user on X.
Consumer Sentiment
Friday’s consumer sentiment report is also a key US economic indicator that has implications for Bitcoin price. Economists project this macro data to arrive at 55.0 for June after a previous reading of 52.2 in May.
In hindsight, the May consumer sentiment report showed that US consumer sentiment is getting even worse. Specifically, the Consumer Sentiment index declined 1.4 points to 52.2, the second-lowest reading in the survey’s history, lower than 2008 and the 1980s recession.
US Consumer Sentiment. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X
The Consumer Sentiment Index, measuring US consumer confidence, impacts Bitcoin (BTC) by reflecting economic optimism or pessimism, influencing risk appetite and Fed policy expectations.
High sentiment (e.g., above 76.0, as in May 2025 at 76.0) above May’s 52.2 reading would signal economic strength, potentially reducing rate cut odds and strengthening the dollar, which can pressure BTC prices downward.
Conversely, low sentiment, potentially below the projected 55.0, would boost expectations of Fed easing, supporting risk assets like BTC,
These four US economic indicators summarize consumer confidence and long-term inflation expectations, and can impact spending and overall economic growth.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin was trading for $105,448 as of this writing, down by 0.09% in the last 24 hours.
