People tend to overindex on events. Something happens that feels like a past moment, and suddenly everyone’s reacting like it’s the exact same playbook again.

In a space that’s inherently social, that effect gets amplified. Emotions run hot, and the moment something looks familiar, people jump the gun overselling, and max extrapolating. It stops being about what’s actually happening, and becomes more about what happened last time, plus what everyone else is saying.

These knee-jerk reactions throw things out of balance. And that’s where opportunity shows up - when the herd leans too far, too fast, off a surface-level read.

Some questions that are worth asking:

1) Is this a short-term overreaction or is something actually breaking?

2) If I were flat right now, where would I allocate? Where does the money go next?

3) What’s getting ignored while everyone’s busy staring at the obvious?

4) If I’m already in a position, am I early enough to sense the pendulum swing?

- If yes, I might be able to sell and buy back lower.

- If not, and we’re in the final innings of the reaction - why sell into weakness?