If you’ve traded through 2017 or 2021, you already know this:
Altseasons don’t begin with Bitcoin.
They start with $ETH flipping the switch.
And that switch?
It’s $ETH/$BTC breaking above structural resistance.
In this cycle, that’s the 0.038 level.
Right now, ETH/BTC is forming a clean cup-and-handle + bull flag, pointing to a 30–55% move if confirmed.
That’s not just technical alpha, it’s a macro trigger.
● Why ETH/BTC Matters More Than BTC Dominance
ETH/BTC is the cleanest expression of “risk-on” within crypto. When $ETH gains on $BTC, it signals that investors are:
→ Moving down the risk curve,
→ Positioning for growth,
→ Seeking higher beta.
It’s not just a signal, it’s a liquidity unlock.
When $ETH starts outperforming, the market doesn’t just rotate into $ETH. It expands:
→ L2 tokens rally.
→ $ETH-native yield protocols regain attention.
→ Modular infrastructure plays get re-rated.
→ Real-world assets and Perps catch a bid.
● How the Rotation Could Play Out
Here’s a data-backed look at where capital may rotate once $ETH breaks out:
Rotation Tier 1: ETH-Native Infra
+ $PENDLE — Yield narratives lead every $ETH breakout
+ $RENZO, $PUFFER — LRTs are $ETH-beta with leverage
+ $EIGEN — The restaking index trade
Rotation Tier 2: L2 Capital Expansion
+ $ARB, $OP, $MNT — High-liquidity L2s with strong builder momentum
— Rotation Tier 3: $ETH DeFi Flywheel
+ $HYPE, $GMX, $DYDX — Revived perp narratives
+ $ENA, $ONDO — Yield-on-chain + RWA liquidity inflow
✍️ Conclusion
This isn’t about chasing low caps early.
It’s about tracking ETH/BTC like a hawk. If 0.038 breaks, that’s your cue.
“Altseason doesn’t start when your bags pump.
It starts when $ETH reclaims dominance.”